000 AXNT20 KNHC 141742 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1242 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... Gale-force NE-to-E winds continue in the south-central and southwestern Caribbean Sea off the coast of Colombia and eastern Panama. The latest ASCAT pass from 14/1426 UTC shows gale force winds from 10.5N-14N between 74W-79W. Gales are expected to continue in this area through 1200 UTC Wed morning. Winds will be below gale force during the daylight hours Wed. Gales will return Wed night. Wave heights will be 14 to 18 ft today and 10 to 14 ft Wed. See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends along the south coast of Ivory Coast from 05N04W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-04N between 17W-32W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere from 01S-04N between 06W-43W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface observations indicate that dense sea fog is present along and within 30 nm of the Texas coast, and along and within 60 nm of the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. Earlier dense fog along the Alabama and western Florida panhandle coasts has dispersed somewhat. Areas of fog are forecast to persist at times within 60 nm of shore W of Pensacola Florida through Wed. A surface trough is in the SW corner of the area, from 18N95W to 23N97W, along the coast of Mexico. Isolated showers are near the trough. Surface ridging prevails across the basin. The high over the Atlantic is sliding east, allowing moist southeasterly return flow over the Gulf of Mexico. The high pres ridge will prevail over the northern Gulf through Thu. A cold front will move S over the NE Gulf late Thu night, become stationary on Fri, then dissipate Fri night into Sat as high pres builds over the eastern Gulf. Another cold front will enter the NW Gulf Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid- to upper-level trough axis covers much of the Caribbean Sea. In the northeastern Caribbean, Scattered showers and tstorms are seen from 14N-20N between 60W-71W, including the Leeward and Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Comparatively drier air is over the western basin. The latest ASCAT pass from Tuesday morning at 1426 UTC shows near gale-force trade winds from 10N-18N between 71W-81W and in the Windward Passage. Gales are from 10.5N-14N between 74W-79W. Strong winds prevail elsewhere within the area bounded by 10N76W to 16N60W to 21N60W to 22N83W to 10N83W to 10N76W. Fresh winds are over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Strong high pressure centered NE of the region will maintain gales over the south-central Caribbean today and tonight. Then, winds will pulse to gale force during the overnight hours through Sat night. Elsewhere, strong winds will continue across much of the central and western Caribbean through Sat. Near gale force winds will linger today for the waters from the Windward Passage to Jamaica. Large seas in long period NE swell will continue across the region through midweek, and persist over the central Caribbean through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1030 mb surface high is centered near 30N62W, leading to ridging across the western half of the Atlantic. Strong trade winds prevail south of 23N between 50W-80W. Fresh trades are from 23N-25N, with moderate trades from 25N-27.5N. The latest ASCAT pass shows near gale force winds in and near the Windward Passage. Upper-level troughing along 20N between 50W and Hispaniola is helping to induce scattered showers and tstorms south of 20N between 60W-71W. A surface trough along 54W from 08N-13N is also producing scattered showers. A cold front extends from 32N25W to 23N46W. Isolated showers are along the front. In the far E Atlantic, a surface trough from 25N20W to 10N17W is inducing scattered showers over the area. Strong high pres over the western Atlantic will maintain strong trades across the waters S of 22N today. Strong to near gale force winds will affect the approaches to the Windward Passage through Wed. Seas north of Puerto Rico and east of the SE Bahamas will gradually subside through late Wed. Long period NE swell will continue through that time. Winds will diminish late Wed through Thu as high pres weakens over the northern waters. A cold front will enter the northern waters late Thu, then continue S across the region through Sat night. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas in large N to NE swell will follow the front. Very large seas are possible north of 22N between 50W-73W late Friday through late Sat, shifting east of 65W on Sun. $$ Hagen/Zachry