000 AXNT20 KNHC 141155 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1140 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... Gale-force NE-to-E winds, and sea heights ranging from 14 feet to 20 feet, are being experienced off the coast of Colombia, from 10N to 13N between 73W and 79W. Expect gale-force NE to E winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 16 feet, in more or less the same areas, until at least Wednesday night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN SWELL AND HIGH SEAS... The forecast conditions for the next 24 hours: Expect fresh to near gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet, from 10N to 24N between 43W and 80W. Expect fresh winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, elsewhere, from 06N to 30N between 35W and 79W. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, everything from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. A 1032 mb high pressure center is near 32N64W in the Atlantic Ocean, about 60 nm to the ESE of Bermuda. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 04N, to 03N10W. The ITCZ continues from 03N10W, to 02N20W to 01N29W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 02N northward from 05W eastward, and within 120 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 20W and 32W, from 01S to the Equator between 08W and 12W, and from 01S to the Equator between 35W and 40W. Isolated moderate from the ITCZ southward between 19W and 25W. One surface trough is along 33W/34W, from 12N southward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 02N to 04N between 37W and 39W. A second surface trough is along 52W/54W from 14N southward. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 11N southward between 50W and 57W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from the Atlantic Ocean, along 30N, to the Florida Big Bend, to 22N94W. SE Louisiana Panhandle/SW Mississippi, through Louisiana, to 27N along the coast of Texas. Upper level SW wind flow is pushing high level moisture from Mexico to 86W in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is in the SW corner of the area, from 19N96W to 24N97.5W, along the coast of Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds, and possible rainshowers, are from 24N southward from 94W westward. Areas of fog will persist in the northern Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday. A ridge will prevail in the northern Gulf of Mexico through Thursday. A cold front will move southward into the NE Gulf late on Thursday night. The front will become stationary on Friday. The front will dissipate from Friday night into Saturday, as high pressure builds in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Another cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model for 250 mb and water vapor satellite imagery show a trough that extends from Hispaniola to Jamaica, to the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. An upper level trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 20N57W, to the Mona Passage, to SE Cuba. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W eastward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, everywhere, in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible, in broken to overcast low level clouds, in the trade wind flow, except for the areas that are from 12N southward between Colombia and 78W. 24-hour rainfall totals, in inches, that are listed for the period that ended at 14/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.30 in Guadeloupe, and 0.30 in Curacao. Strong high pressure, that is centered to the NE of the area, will maintain gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea into early Wednesday morning. It is possible that the wind speeds may pulse to gale-force, during the overnight hours, off the coast of Colombia, through Saturday night. Strong winds will continue across much of the central and western Caribbean Sea through Saturday. Near gale-force winds are expected today in the waters from the Windward Passage to Jamaica. Large sea heights, in long-period NE swell, will continue in the region through Wednesday, and persist in the central Caribbean Sea through Saturday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through the Madeira Archipelago 32N18W cyclonic circulation center, to 24N30W, to a 20N36W weakening cyclonic circulation center, to 20N57W, to the Mona Passage, to SE Cuba. A stationary front passes through 32N27W to 28N36W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is within 150 nm to 240 nm on either side of the upper level trough in the Atlantic Ocean, and from 70W eastward in the Caribbean Sea. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near the Madeira Archipelago. A surface trough is along 25N20W 17N19W 09N15W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is near the Madeira Archipelago. A 1032 mb high pressure center is near 32N64W in the Atlantic Ocean, about 60 nm to the ESE of Bermuda. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the N and NW of the stationary front and the 32N18W 21N38W 17N70W upper level trough. Strong high pressure in the western Atlantic Ocean will maintain strong trade winds in the waters that are to the south of 22N today. Strong to Near gale-force winds are expected near the Approaches to the Windward Passage through Wednesday. Large sea heights, in long-period NE swell, will continue in much of the region through Wednesday. The wind speeds will diminish, from late Wednesday through Thursday, as the high pressure that is in the western Atlantic Ocean weakens in the northern waters. A cold front is expected to move into the northern waters late on Thursday afternoon, and continue southward through Saturday night. This cold front will be followed by fresh to strong N winds and building sea heights, in large N to NE swell. $$ mt