000 AXNT20 KNHC 140559 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... Gale-force NE-to-E winds, and sea heights ranging from 15 feet to 20 feet, are being experienced off the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 13N between 74W and 77W. Expect gale-force NE to E winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 16 feet, in more or less the same areas, until at least Wednesday night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN SWELL AND HIGH SEAS... The forecast conditions for the next 24 hours: Expect fresh to near gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 13 feet, from 14N to 24N between 53W and 74W. Expect fresh winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet, elsewhere, from 07N to 31N between 35W and 79W. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, everything from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. A 1034 mb high pressure center is near 32N60W in the Atlantic Ocean, about 240 nm to the E of Bermuda. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 05N09W, to 03N13W. The ITCZ continues from 03N13W, to 01N20W and 01N25W. A surface trough is along 26W/27W, from 04N southward. The ITCZ continues from 01N30W, crossing the Equator along 31W, to 04S39W at the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 05N southward from 40W eastward. Isolated moderate from 12N southward between 50W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is in the coastal plains of the U.S.A., from the Florida Panhandle/SW Mississippi, through Louisiana, to 27N along the coast of Texas. Upper level SW wind flow is pushing high level moisture from Mexico to 86W in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is in the SW corner of the area. The trough extends from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, northwestward to 24N97W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 21N southward between 92W and 97W. A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 29N83W, along the west coast of Florida. The current 1026 mb high pressure center will build through the entire northern Gulf of Mexico through Thursday. A cold front will move southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico on Friday. The front will become stationary on Friday night, and it will dissipate by Saturday. A surface ridge will build southward, and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This ridge will move to the east of the area on Saturday night, as a new cold front enters the NW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Mainly fresh northerly winds are expected behind this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model for 250 mb and water vapor satellite imagery show a trough that passes through the Windward Passage, to Jamaica, beyond Nicaragua. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 17N to Cuba between 77W and 83W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, everywhere, in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible, in broken to overcast low level clouds, in the trade wind flow, except for the areas that are from 13N southward between 74W and 79W. 24-hour rainfall totals, in inches, that are listed for the period that ended at 14/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.30 in Guadeloupe, and 0.30 in Curacao. Strong high pressure, that is centered to the NE of the area, will maintain gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea into early Wednesday morning. It is possible that the wind speeds may pulse to gale-force, during the overnight hours, off the coast of Colombia, from Wednesday through Saturday night. Strong to near gale-force NE-to-E winds will continue in the forecast waters through early Saturday. This will include the waters from the Windward Passage to Jamaica and vicinity and the waters to the lee of Cuba. Large sea heights, in long-period NE swell, will continue in the region through Wednesday. It is possible that large sea heights may redevelop as early as Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through a 32N18W cyclonic circulation center, to 27N26W, to a 21N38W cyclonic circulation center, to 19N63W, to 17N70W in the Caribbean Sea. A stationary front passes through 32N28W to 27N42W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is from 13N to 22N between 53W and 65W. Isolated moderate within 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near the Madeira Archipelago. A surface trough is along 30N17W 25N19W 21N20W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 30N to 34N between 10W and 20W. A 1034 mb high pressure center is near 32N60W, about 240 nm to the E of Bermuda. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the N and NW of the stationary front and the 32N18W 21N38W 17N70W upper level trough. Strong high pressure in the western and central Atlantic Ocean will maintain strong trade winds in the waters that are to the south of 27N through Tuesday. Near gale-force winds are expected near the Approaches to the Windward Passage. Large sea heights, in long-period NE swell, will continue in much of the region into Wednesday. The wind speeds will diminish, from late Wednesday through Thursday, as the high pressure that is in the western Atlantic Ocean weakens, while moving eastward slowly. A cold front is expected to move into the northern waters late on Thursday afternoon, and continue southward through Friday night. This cold front will be followed by fresh to strong N winds and building sea heights. $$ mt