000 AXNT20 KNHC 131716 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1216 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... Gale-force NE-to-E winds are occurring from 11N-13.5N between 73W-78W, off the coast of Colombia, according to the latest ASCAT pass. Gale-force winds are expected to continue here through early Wed morning. Sea heights are forecast to range from 14 to 20 feet in the area. See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN SWELL AND HIGH SEAS... The surface pressure gradient, with strong high pressure in the Atlantic Ocean, will lead to a continuation of strong easterly winds and large sea heights, south of 24N between the SE Bahamas and 50W, through early Tue before winds and seas gradually subside Tue into Wed. Windward facing islands from the southeast Bahamas to the Leeward Islands will experience large and battering waves through Tue. The sea heights will be 10 to 14 ft in the area north of Puerto Rico and east of the southeast Bahamas in NE swell. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 05N09W and extends to 04N20W to 01N25W. The ITCZ extends from 00N28W to 03S32W to 03S42W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03S-03N between 11W-29W. GULF OF MEXICO... A warm front extends from Pensacola Florida to Boothville Louisiana to 28N95W to South Padre Island Texas to 22N97W. A surface trough is from 22N97W to 17N93W. Scattered moderate convection is within 75 nm N and 30 nm S of the front from 27N-30N between 91.5W-96.5W. Similar convection is inland over southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and Alabama. Isolated showers are elsewhere along the warm front and surface trough in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Some showers are also noted near the Florida Keys. The warm front will continue to lift northwestward today while gradually weakening into a trough. Atlantic high pressure will build westward across the northern Gulf through Thu. A cold front will move southward over the NE Gulf Thu night, then become stationary, weaken on Fri and dissipate Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gale force winds are from 11N-13.5N between 73W-78W. See section above for details. Near gales are elsewhere from 10N-18N between 70W-81W, and from 15N-18N between 62W-70W. Strong trades are elsewhere. Relatively dry air covers the Caribbean, except for a few showers in the west-central Caribbean near Honduras. Strong high pressure centered NE of the region will maintain gale force winds in the south-central Caribbean through Tue night. Winds will likely continue pulsing to gale force near the coast of Colombia Wed through Fri night. Elsewhere, strong to near gale force winds will persist across most of the Caribbean through Tue night, then gradually diminish Wed through Fri east of 70W as high pressure weakens over the western Atlantic. Large seas in long- period NE swell will continue across the region through midweek. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface high pressure ridging extends over the western Atlantic, anchored by a 1037 mb high near 32N57W. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong to near gale-force NE trades from 15N-24N between 48W-75W. Fresh to strong winds are elsewhere from 06N-28N between 37W-81W. An upper-level low near 24N38W is embedded in an upper- level trough axis that extends from 32N20W to 24N38W to 21N54W to 22N70W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen just north of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico from 18N-22N between 66W-72W, and from 18N-22N between 52W-60W. Isolated to scattered showers are in between those two areas, including over Puerto Rico. A surface trough is from 28N35W to 23N38W. Scattered showers and tstorms are from 23N-26N between 35W-40W, enhanced by the upper- low. The tail end of a stationary front located mostly north of the area extends from 32N28W to 29N35W with isolated showers possible near the front. Strong high pressure across the western and central Atlantic will maintain strong trades across the waters S of 27N through Tue, with near gale force winds expected near the approaches to the Windward Passage. Large seas in long-period NE swell will continue over much of the region through Wed. Winds will diminish Wed through Thu as high pressure over the western Atlantic weakens while slowly moving eastward. A cold front is expected to move into the northern waters Thu evening and continue southward over the area through Fri night followed fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas. $$ Hagen