000 AXNT20 KNHC 120601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... Gale-force NE to E winds, and sea heights ranging from 17 feet to 23 feet, are being experienced off the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 13N between 74W and 77W. Expect gale-force NE to E winds in more or less the same areas until at least Monday night, with sea heights ranging from 15 feet to 20 feet. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN SWELL AND HIGH SEAS... The surface pressure gradient, with the strong high pressure in the Atlantic Ocean, will lead to a continuation of strong to near gale-force easterly winds, and large sea heights, covering from the Caribbean Sea northward, between 35W and the Bahamas. Windward facing islands from the central Bahamas to the Leeward Islands will experience large and battering waves through early next week. The sea heights will be reaching 17 feet, particularly to the north of Puerto Rico and to the north of the Leeward Islands, in E to SE swell. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal order sections of Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N11W, to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 02N24W, crossing the Equator along 36W, to 01S40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is along and within 60 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 13W and 21W, and within 120 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 23W and 36W, and within 120 nm to 240 nm to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 10W and 16W. GULF OF MEXICO... The cold front that moved into the NW Gulf of Mexico late on Friday/early on Saturday, has been moving eastward during Saturday. The front passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near Veracruz. A developing secondary cold front is about 210 nm to the WNW of the first cold front. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate are between 84W and 97W. The gale-force wind conditions near Veracruz Mexico have improved, to less than gale-force, from the north 20 to 25 knots. A cold front extends from near Pensacola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico. A secondary cold front is located from Louisiana to Tamaulipas, Mexico. A squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms is located nearshore of the Florida Panhandle. The squall line and secondary cold front should dissipate overnight. The main cold front will stretch from the Florida Big Bend into the Bay of Campeche by Sunday, and then stall by Sunday night. The gale-force winds, that were being experienced near Veracruz Mexico, have slowed down enough, in order to be less than gale- force, during the last few hours. Atlantic Ocean high pressure will build westward across the area Monday through Wednesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model for 250 mb and water vapor satellite imagery show a trough that extends from NW Cuba, into the west central Caribbean Sea, to the northern coast of Colombia. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, nearly everywhere, except from 17N northward from 80W westward. Rainshowers are possible, in broken to overcast low level clouds, in the trade wind flow. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 11/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.42 in Guadeloupe, and 0.06 in Curacao. High pressure, that is centered to the north of the area, will allow for strong to near gale-force winds to continue across the entire area through at least Tuesday. Gale-force winds are expected to continue in the south central Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night, then pulse to gale-force again on Wednesday night. Large sea heights will continue across the region into Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N31W to 27N39W. A shear line continues from 27N39W to 23N50W 19N63W, to the Turks and Caicos Islands and Great Inagua Island. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 240 nm to the south and southeast of the line that extends from 32N36W to 25N46W to 24N60W. A 1041 mb high pressure center is near 35N54W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the north and northwest of the stationary front/shear line. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean between 22W and 50W. This wind flow is related to an upper level cyclonic circulation center that is near 28N31W, and a trough that extends southwestward from the cyclonic center. Broken to overcast multilayered moisture is spiraling away from the upper level cyclonic center, and it is within 450 nm to the NE of the center, and within 750 nm to the SE of the center. Rainshowers are possible from 22N northward between 22W and 40W. Strong high pressure across the western and central Atlantic Ocean will continue through Tuesday, and then shift eastward and weaken through Wednesday night. Strong trade winds, gusty at times, will remain in place with potentially hazardous seas through Monday. Fresh to strong trade winds will be confined to the southern waters through Wednesday. Large sea heights will continue in most of the forecast waters through Wednesday night. $$ mt