000 AXNT20 KNHC 111803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 103 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... Gale-force E winds, and sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 19 feet, are being experienced off the coasts of Colombia, from 10N to 16 N between 69W and 80W. Latest ASCAT data indicates gale force winds are present from 11N-13N between 73W-76W. Expect gale-force E winds to continue through Sunday night. See latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... As of 11/1500 UTC, cold front is along a line from 29N90W to 20N96W. Expect NW gale-force winds, and sea heights to 8 to 10 ft, N of 20N W of 94W. Gale-force wind conditions are forecast to continue until at least Saturday night. Due to strong southerly flow across the northeast Gulf waters, a short live Gale Warning has been issued by the local National Weather Service in Mobile and Tallahassee. Refer to the their local Coastal Water Forecast for additional information on the Gale Warning. Conditions are forecast to improve by this evening. See latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details. ...SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN SWELL AND HIGH SEAS... The surface pressure gradient, with the strong 1043 mb high pressure in the Atlantic Ocean centered near 35N55W, will lead to a continuation of strong to near gale-force NE-E winds, and large sea heights. Latest ASCAT shows the strong to near gale- force winds covering much of the basin extending from 60N to 30N between 41W to the Bahamas near 75W. The fresh to strong winds are also observed in the USVI and across PR. The windward facing islands from the central Bahamas to the Leeward Islands will experience large and battering waves through early next week. The sea heights will be reaching 17 feet, particularly to the north of Puerto Rico and to the north of the Leeward Islands, in E to SE swell. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia, to 06N10W to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02N18W to 00N30W and 00N44W. Scattered showers extend from 00-06N between 07W-28W. GULF OF MEXICO... See Special Features above for additional information on the Gale Warnings in the Gulf of Mexico. As of 11/1500 UTC, cold front is along a line from 29N90W to 20N96W to a 1017 mb low. A secondary front has moved into the northern Gulf waters from 25N97W to 29N93W. A squall line is 40 nm SE of the main front from 25N94W to 29N91W. This vigorous squall line consists of numerous strong to severe thunderstorms just ahead of the front north of 24N. Scattered moderate to strong convection from 25N93W north to 30N88W. ASCAT data shows fresh to strong SE flow east of 90W. The squall line will continue racing eastward across the north- central and NE Gulf through this evening, while the front reaches from the western Florida panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche. The front will become stationary and weaken Sun, then drift northward as a frontal trough through Mon. Gale-force northwest to north winds are expected west of the front near the coast of Veracruz Mexico this afternoon and into tonight. Atlantic high pressure will build westward across the area Mon through Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean. The latest scatterometer data depicts a large area of strong to near gale-force easterly winds across the central and eastern Caribbean, with gale-force winds north of Colombia. Fresh to strong easterly winds are in the western Caribbean. Strong high pressure north of the area will allow for strong to near gale force winds to continue across the entire area through Tue. Gale force winds are expected to continue in the south- central Caribbean through Tue night, then pulse to gale again Wed night. Large seas will continue across the region through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the swells and high seas for the the Atlantic basin. The surface pressure gradient, with the strong 1043 mb high pressure in the Atlantic Ocean centered near 35N55W, will continue to keep strong to near gale-force NE-E winds across the basin. Latest ASCAT shows the strong to near gale-force winds covering much of the basin from 60N to 30N between 41W to the Bahamas near 75W. Sea heights will be reaching 17 feet, particularly to the north of Puerto Rico and to the north of the Leeward Islands, in E to SE swell. A cold front enters the forecast area from 30N33W to 23N52W to 21N61W, then stalls to 23N72W. Strong to near gale force winds are seen north of the front from 22N-25N between 42W-70W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the front. Strong high pressure across the western and central Atlantic will continue through early Tue, then shift eastward and weaken through Wed night. Strong trades, gusty at times, will remain in place with potentially hazardous seas through Sun night, then fresh to strong trades will be confined to the southern waters through Wed night. Large seas will continue over most of the forecast waters through Wed night. $$ Torres