000 AXNT20 KNHC 102352 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 652 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... A 1041 mb surface high is centered near 37N62W. The high is resulting in gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia from 11N- 14N between 73W-78W. The gales will continue through the weekend. An altimeter passed over the area Fri morning around 10/1425 UTC and measured wave heights of 15 to 16 ft from 11N-13N near 75W- 77W. Seas are forecast to continue in the 16 to 21 ft range through Saturday then 15 to 19 ft on Sun. See the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details. GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday morning. As the front approaches, gale-force SE to S winds are expected off the Texas coast this evening from 26N-29N between 94W-96W. Seas will range from 10 to 13 ft. Behind the front, gale- force NW winds are expected off the coast of Veracruz by Saturday afternoon and continue through Saturday evening. Seas will range from 8 to 10 ft. See the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details. SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC SWELL AND HIGH SEAS... The pressure gradient resulting from the strong high pressure in the Atlantic will lead to a continuation of strong to near gale force easterly winds and very large seas over a large area, from the Caribbean Sea to 28N, between 50W and the Bahamas. Windward facing islands from the central Bahamas to the Leeward Islands will experience large and battering waves through early next week. Seas will be up to 16 ft particularly north of Puerto Rico and north of the Leeward Islands in E to SE swell. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 04N15W. The ITCZ extends from 04N15W to 00N27W to the coast of Brazil near 03S44W. Isolated moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 01S-04N between 19W-28W, and from 05S-08N between 31W-42W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect. A large low pressure system moving eastward across the central U.S. extends a cold front across west-central Texas and northern Mexico. Ahead of the front, severe weather is occurring over northeastern and central Texas. Scattered showers are also seen over southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and over the north- central Gulf of Mexico north of 28N between 86W-89W. 20 to 30 kt SE to S winds are occurring over the western Gulf of Mexico. Strong SE winds are also over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Friday morning's ASCAT pass showed near gale-force east winds in the Florida Straits. Farther south, scattered tstorms seen over the western Yucatan Peninsula are associated with a trough. Some of these tstorms are possible over the eastern Bay of Campeche this evening. SE to S winds will reach gale-force tonight ahead of a strong cold front entering the NW Gulf of Mexico Sat morning. The front will extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche Sat night, stall and weaken Sun, then drift northward through Mon. Gale-force NW winds are expected west of the front off the coast of Veracruz Mexico Sat afternoon and evening. A surface trough, the remnants of the front, will prevail across the SW basin Sun before dissipating early on Mon. Return flow will establish across the basin afterwards, continuing through the middle of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Isolated showers and tstorms are over the northwestern Caribbean Sea from Honduras to the Yucatan Channel between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula due to leftover moisture from the surface trough that is now located over the western Yucatan Peninsula. Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic is causing strong to near gale-force trades across the entire basin. Gale-force winds are near the coast of Colombia. Wave heights of 12-18 ft cover the area from 10N-18N between 65W-83W. A tight pressure gradient between very strong high pressure N of the area and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support strong to near gale force winds across most of the basin through late Tue when the winds will start to decrease. With these winds, sea heights to 15 ft are expected to continue, higher in the south-central to southwest basin. Off the coast of Colombia, gale force winds will persist through at least Tuesday morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Strong to near gale force trades continue over the Florida Straits, Bahamas and most of the SW N Atlantic, from 12N-29N between 50W-82W, due to a 1041 mb high centered north of the area. To the east, a cold front extends from 32N39W to 26N50W to 24N62W, then is stationary from that point to 23N71W. Showers are seen within 90 nm of the front. A surface trough is analyzed from 28N44W to 20N48W. No significant convection is noted along the trough. Strong high pressure will prevail through the middle of the upcoming week supporting a continuation of strong winds across most of the area through Sun. Winds across the northern waters are expected to diminish afterwards. Strong winds will prevail across the southern waters through Tue evening. Large seas are expected over the region through the weekend. $$ Hagen