000 AXNT20 KNHC 101737 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1237 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... A 1042 mb surface Arctic high is centered near 38N65W. As the high slides eastward across the Atlantic today, this will result in a continuation of strong to gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia from 11N-14N between 73W-79W. These conditions will continue through the weekend, with seas ranging from 12 to 23 ft starting Saturday morning. See the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details. GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday morning, then extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche by Sat night. As the front approaches, gale-force SE winds are expected within 90 nm of the Texas coast starting this evening. Behind the front, gale-force NW winds are expected off the coast of Veracruz by Saturday afternoon and continue through early Sunday. Seas will range 8 to 10 ft. See the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details. SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC SWELL... The pressure gradient resulting from the Arctic high pressure in the Atlantic will lead to strong easterly winds and large seas. Windward facing islands from the southern Bahamas to the Leeward Islands will experience large and battering waves through early next week. Seas will be up to 16 ft particularly from Puerto Rico to the Leeward Islands in E to SE swell. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Liberia from 06N11W and extends to 03N15W. The ITCZ extends from 03N15W to 01N29W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 01S-05N between 18W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect. Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1042 mb high centered northeast of the area. A large upper- level trough over the west- central U.S. is creating upper- level diffluence over portions of Louisiana, east Texas, northern Mexico and the NW Gulf of Mexico. This is leading to scattered showers over the NW Gulf of Mexico. In addition, scattered showers and thunderstorms are also noted in the central Gulf near the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong easterly winds across the eastern half of the basin. In the western Gulf, fresh to strong SE winds are noted especially off the coast of Texas. Moderate to fresh winds are across the central and southern Gulf. SE winds will reach gale-force tonight ahead of a strong cold front entering the NW Gulf of Mexico Saturday morning. The front will extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche Saturday night, stall and weaken Sunday, then drift northward through Monday. Gale- force NW winds are expected west of the front off the coast of Veracruz Mexico Saturday afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean. A surface trough extends across the Yucatan Peninsula from 20N87W to 16N89W with scattered showers within 100 nm of this feature. The remainder of the basin is relatively dry due to the influence of mid-to- upper level ridging. The latest scatterometer data depicts a large area of strong to near gale-force easterly winds across the central and eastern Caribbean, with gale-force winds north of Colombia. Fresh to strong easterly winds are in the western Caribbean. With high pressure prevailing north of the region, widespread strong tradewinds and large seas can be expected. Gales will persist off the Colombian coast through at least Tuesday. For windward facing islands, large swell will lead to large and battering waves through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1042 mb high centered north of the area is causing strong to near-gale force winds E winds over the Florida Straits and the Bahamas. The latest ASCAT pass depicts fresh to strong winds west of 60W. Similar conditions should continue south of 29N between 48W-80W through the weekend before winds gradually diminish by early next week. To the east, a cold front extends from 31N43W to 24N60W, then becomes stationary from that point to 23N74W. Showers are seen within 100 nm of the front. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N39W to 21N49W. No significant convection is noted along the trough. Strong high pressure centered north of the area will build south leading to strong easterly winds and large seas. Windward facing islands will experience large and battering waves into early next week.on. $$ AKR