000 AXNT20 KNHC 101113 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 613 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... A 1042 mb surface high is centered near 39N67W. The high will move eastward into the western Atlantic today, resulting in a continuation of strong to gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia from 11N-14N between 73W-79W. These conditions will continue through the weekend, with seas ranging from 13 to 20 ft starting on Sat. See the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details. GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Sat morning, then extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche by Sat night. As the front approaches, gale-force SE winds are expected within 90 nm of the Texas coast starting tonight. Behind the front, gale-force NW winds are expected off the coast of Veracruz by Sat afternoon. These conditions will continue through early Sun. See the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Africa from 07N11W and extends to 01N27W. The ITCZ extends from 01N27W to the coast of Brazil near 02S41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the boundaries between 18W-41W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect. Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1042 mb high centered north of the area. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong easterly winds across the eastern half of the basin, while moderate to fresh southeast winds are noted west of 90W. A large upper-level trough over the west-central U.S. is creating upper-level diffluence over portions of Louisiana, east Texas, northern Mexico and the NW Gulf of Mexico. This is leading to scattered showers over the NW Gulf of Mexico. SE winds will reach gale-force tonight ahead of a strong cold front entering the NW Gulf of Mexico by Sat morning. The front will extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche Sat night, stall and weaken Sun, then drift northward through Mon. Gale-force NW winds are expected west of the front off the coast of Veracruz Mexico Sat afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean. A surface trough extends across the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N87W to 17N87W with scattered showers. The remainder of the basin is relatively dry due to the influence of mid-to-upper level ridging. The latest ASCAT pass depicts fresh to strong easterly winds across most of the basin except within 90 nm north of the coast of Colombia, where gale-force winds are noted. Strong high pressure will prevail north of the area through Tue night. Strong trade winds and large seas will prevail across much of the region through Tue. Gale-force winds are expected off the coast of Colombia through Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1042 mb high centered north of the area is causing strong to near-gale force winds E winds over the Florida Straits and the Bahamas. The latest ASCAT pass depicts fresh to strong winds west of 60W. Similar conditions should continue south of 29N between 50W-80W through the weekend before winds gradually diminish by early next week. To the east, a cold front extends from 31N47W to 26N56W, then becomes stationary from that point to 23N74W. A surface trough is analyzed from 26N44W to 15N44W. No significant convection is noted along the trough. The front over the central Atlantic will dissipate Fri. Strong high pressure will build north of a stationary front east of the Bahamas the next few days, and prevail across the region through Tue. Strong winds and large seas are expected across the entire region. $$ ERA