000 AXNT20 KNHC 091031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 531 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... Strong high pressure will continue building over the western Atlantic off the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast through Fri, resulting in strengthening trades over the Caribbean. Gale-force winds have developed south of 11N between 68W-83W. These conditions will continue through at least the next 48 hours. The winds will cause seas to range from 9 to 12 ft today, and 12 to 14 ft by Friday. See the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 05N10W to 02N24W. The ITCZ extends from 02N24W to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ mainly west of 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1032 mb high centered over the Carolinas. Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail across much of the area, except over the Bay of Campeche, where light to gentle winds are noted mainly south of 21N and west of 91W. A surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche with little to no convection at this time. The high pressure over the SE United States will shift eastward into over the western Atlantic through Fri. A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf by Sat morning, extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche on Sat night, then stall and drift northward Sun through Mon. Gale force NW winds are possible near the coast of Veracruz Sat afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the south central Caribbean. A surface trough is over the west Caribbean from 20N81W to 12N81W. Scattered showers are noted along this trough. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds across the western Caribbean mainly west of 75W, while moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. A large mid-to-upper level high centered over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola covers most of the basin, leading to subsidence. Strong high pressure will build north of the area through Fri, then remain over the western and central Atlantic through Mon night. Strong trade winds and building seas will prevail across the entire region through Mon night, with gale force winds expected near the coast of Colombia during this time. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from from 31N60W to 28N67W, then continues as a stationary front from that point to 24N75W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N57W to 24N67W. Scattered showers are noted along the front/trough. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1035 mb centered near 34N24W. The cold front will continue moving east while weakening. Strong high pressure building north of the front through Fri will remain over the western and central Atlantic through Mon night, resulting in a large area of strong winds and building seas across the entire region. Highest winds and seas are expected east of the Bahamas through Sun. $$ ERA