000 AXNT20 KNHC 090521 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1221 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... Strong high pressure will build over the western Atlantic off the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast Thu into Fri, resulting in strengthening trades over the Caribbean tonight. Nocturnal gale-force winds are expected each night off the coast of Colombia beginning tonight through at least Sunday night. On Friday, gale-force winds are forecast to persist through the daylight hours. The winds will cause seas to range from 10 to 13 ft Thursday and 13 to 17 ft by Friday. By Friday, wave heights in excess of 12 ft are expected to cover a very large area in the central Caribbean sea, from Panama and Colombia northward to the southern coasts of Jamaica and Hispaniola. See the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 02N25W. The ITCZ extends from 02N25W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1031 mb high centered over eastern Alabama. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds prevail across much of the area, except for E-SE winds in the far western Gulf. A surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche with little to no convection at this time. The high pressure will shift E to over the western Atlantic by Friday. A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf Fri night. The front will extend from the Florida Big Bend to along the western Yucatan Peninsula Sat night. Gale force NW winds are possible near the coast of Veracruz Sat afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect. A surface trough is over the central Caribbean from 19N78W to 11N80W. Scattered showers are noted with this trough. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds across the western Caribbean mainly west of 75W, while moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. A large mid-to-upper level high centered over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola covers most of the basin, leading to subsidence. Strong high pressure will build north of the area through Friday, then reside over the western Atlantic through this weekend. Expect strong trade winds and building seas across the entire region through the end of this week. Gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia tonight through Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from from 31N62W to 26N76W, then continues as a weakening cold front from that point to 25N80W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N60W to 25N65W. Scattered showers are noted along the front/trough. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1036 mb centered near 34N28W. The cold front will push to the E of the forecast waters by Thu night. Strong high pressure will build over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front through Fri, then remain in place through this weekend. The high will produce a large area of strong winds and building seas across the entire region. The highest winds and seas are expected to affect the waters E of the Bahamas Thu through Sat. $$ ERA