464 AXNT20 KNHC 082352 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 652 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... Strong high pressure of more than 1040 mb will build over the western Atlantic off the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast Thu into Fri, resulting in strengthening trades over the Caribbean Sea by this evening. Nocturnal gale-force winds are expected each night off the coast of Colombia beginning tonight through at least Sunday night. On Friday, gales are forecast to persist through the daylight hours. The winds will cause seas to range from 10 to 13 ft Thursday and 13 to 17 ft by Friday. By Friday, wave heights in excess of 12 ft are expected to cover a very large area in the central Caribbean sea, from Panama and Colombia northward to the southern coasts of Jamaica and Hispaniola. See the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 01N28W. The ITCZ extends from 01N28W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03S-11N between 11W-18W, and from 02S-03N between 32W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating front extends from South Florida to 22N90W to 25N100W. As of 08/2100 UTC, the front is analyzed to have dissipated. Scattered clouds are left over near where the front was. Isolated showers are in the far western Gulf, west of 95W, from 26N southward. A 1031 mb high is centered over southern Alabama. The high extends surface ridging across the basin. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds prevail across much of the area, except for E-SE winds in the far western Gulf. The high over Alabama will shift eastward through Friday night. A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Friday night. The front will extend from the Florida Panhandle to the NW Yucatan Peninsula Sat night. Gale force NW winds are possible near the coast of Veracruz Sat afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect. A surface trough is over the central Caribbean from 17N76W to 10N78W. The ASCAT pass from late Wednesday morning shows fresh trades east of the trough. Strong NE winds extend from the southern coast of Cuba to the northern coast of Honduras. Scattered showers are over the central Caribbean from 13N-18N between 75W-80W. Isolated showers are over Central America from Belize to Panama, to include the Gulf of Honduras and the coast of Costa Rica. Radar imagery shows isolated showers over Puerto Rico. A large mid- to upper-level high centered over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola covers most of the basin, leading to subsidence. Strong high pressure of more than 1040 mb will build north of the area over the western Atlantic off the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast through Friday, then reside over the western Atlantic through this weekend. Expect strong to near gale trade winds and building seas across the entire Caribbean Sea through the end of this week and into the weekend. Seas of 12-18 ft are expected to cover a very large portion of the area in the Caribbean Sea Friday through Monday. Gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia tonight through Monday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N66W to 28N71W, then continues as a weakening cold front from 28N71W to 25.5N80W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N61W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Cloudiness and possible showers are near and within 120 nm NW of the trough axis. A 1031 mb high is centered over southern Alabama. A surface ridge extends from the high eastward to 30N70W. Ridging covers the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a pair of 1033 mb highs near 36N35W and 35N24W, respectively. The ASCAT pass from Wednesday morning shows strong NE trades from 12N-26N between 19W-47W. The cold front extending from 31N66W to 28N71W to 25.5N80W will move E to extend from 31N55W to 27N60W to 22N77W Thu, then continue to the E of the forecast waters Fri. Strong high pressure of more than 1040 mb will build over the western Atlantic off the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast through Friday, then remain in place through this weekend. The high will produce a very large area of strong E winds and building seas across the entire region from the Caribbean to 30N between 60W-80W. The highest winds and seas are expected to affect the waters E of the Bahamas Thu night through Sat, and conditions will be very slow to improve into early next week. $$ Hagen