000 AXNT20 KNHC 071717 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1217 PM EST Tue Jan 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: Strong high pressure will build over the western Atlantic, resulting in strengthening trades over the Caribbean Sea by Wednesday evening. Nocturnal gale force winds are expected each night off the coast of Colombia beginning Wednesday night and lasting through at least Saturday night. The winds will cause high seas in the area. See the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of the Ivory Coast near 05N04W to 03N17W. The ITCZ extends from 03N17W to 02N27W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along and within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 19W-32W. Isolated moderate convection is from 06S-04N between 33W-45W. In the far E Atlantic, scattered moderate convection is seen from 03S-02N between 06E-08W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front entered the NW Gulf of Mexico from the Texas coast early this morning around 07/0700 UTC. The front has quickly moved across the northern Gulf. As of 07/1500 UTC, the front extends from Panama City Beach Florida to 28N90W to 26N95W to the coast of northeastern Mexico near 24.5N98W. Surface observations indicate NE winds of 20 to 27 kt behind the front. A pre-frontal trough extends from the Florida Big Bend near 30N84W to 27N87W. Scattered showers are along the pre-frontal trough, and isolated showers are along the front. A narrow surface ridge extends from central Florida near 28N82W to the central Gulf near 24N90W. The cold front over the northern Gulf will stall and weaken along 24N on Wed. High pressure will build in the wake of the front through Fri before retreating eastward. This will enable a cold front to enter the NW Gulf on Sat, with near gale force NW winds possible near Veracruz Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid and upper-level ridging prevails over the Caribbean, which is leading to dry weather across much of the basin. A small surface trough over the western Gulf of Honduras is leading to a few showers there. A weak surface trough extends along 69W from the Dominican Republic southward. Cloudiness is seen and scattered showers are possible from 13N-20N between 67W-71W. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate to fresh trades across the eastern and central Caribbean. Nocturnal gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia Wed night through Sat night. See the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning. Strong high pressure will build north of the area through Fri, resulting in strong trade winds and building seas across the entire region. By Friday morning, nearly the entire basin will have E trades near 25 kt or stronger. By Fri night and Sat morning, seas in excess of 12 ft are expected to cover the area from 10N-17.5N between 68W- 83W, highest from 11N-14N between 75W-79W, where seas of 15-18 ft are likely. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the central and western Atlantic from 32N46W to 27N58W, then continues as a stationary front from 27N58W to 25N65W to the eastern tip of Cuba near 20N75W. Scattered light showers are possible along and within 120 nm NW of the front between 53W-72W. Fresh NE winds are within 90 nm NW of the stationary front, according to the latest ASCAT pass. A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high near 31N64W to a 1023 mb high centered just north of Lake Okeechobee Florida. Farther east, three surface troughs contain possible isolated to scattered showers along them. They extend from 32N44W to 26N53W, 23N49W to 17N52W, and 28N43W to 22N47W, respectively. A large upper-level low is spreading abundant upper-level moisture from 19N-30N between 20W-30W. High pressure across the northern waters will shift eastward today ahead of a cold front moving off the SE U.S. coast. The front will extend from 31N70W to southern Florida Wed, and become stationary on Thu. Strong high pressure building north of 30N Wed night through Fri night will produce a large area of strong winds and building seas across the entire region, with highest winds and seas expected east of the Bahamas Thu through Sat. By Fri night and Sat, the high seas will extend to the waters north of the Leeward and Virgin Islands. $$ Hagen