121 AXNT20 KNHC 062313 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 612 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of southern Liberia near 04N08W to 03N12W. The ITCZ extends from 03N12W to 03N21W to 02N33W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 18W-38W. There is also scattered moderate convection moving off the coast of Brazil near the ITCZ from 03S-01N between 39W-49W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high over the north-central Gulf of Mexico near 27N90W. The latest scatterometer data depicts gentle anticyclonic flow prevails across most of the basin. In response to a trough moving across the central and southern Plains of the U.S., gentle to moderate southeasterly winds are observed off the Texas and NE Mexican coasts. High pressure over the NE Gulf will shift east into the Atlantic tonight. A cold front will cross the northern waters Tuesday and Tuesday night, then stall and weaken over the southern Gulf on Wednesday. Fresh to strong return flow will prevail across the region Thursday through Friday night. Another cold front will enter the NW Gulf Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front continues to linger south of the Turks and Caicos Islands through the Windward Passage, from 21N72W to 18N76W. Showers are moving southwestward across the Windward Passage to eastern Jamaica. A pre-frontal trough is noted in the Mona Passage from 22N66W to 16N69W. This trough is interacting with a plume of moisture and is bringing scattered showers across most of Puerto Rico, with the activity winding down across the Virgin Islands. Near the coast of Belize and Honduras, a surface trough extends from 18N88W to 15N84W, with scattered showers in the vicinity of the trough. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh N to NE winds north of Colombia. There are also fresh to strong cyclonic winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, moderate trades are seen across the rest of the basin. Strong high pressure will build north of the area through mid week, resulting in strengthening trade winds and building seas across the Caribbean and Tropical N Atlantic waters. Gale force winds are possible near the coast of Colombia from Wednesday night through Saturday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the central and western Atlantic from 31N53W to 26N62W to the southern Turks and Caicos Islands. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. To the east, a surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 22N46W to 16N50W with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms extending 100 nm of the trough axis, from 19N- 22N between 43W-45W. Surface ridging prevails across the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 33N23W. The latest scatterometer data showed moderate N to NW winds behind the cold front. The cold front will stall from near 23.5N65W to Hispaniola tonight, then dissipate Tuesday. Another cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast later Tuesday and cross the waters Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Expect strengthening winds and building seas Thursday through Friday night as strong high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. $$ AKR