000
AXNT20 KNHC 061720
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1220 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Cameroon near 04N09E
to 01N02W to 01N08W. The ITCZ extends from 01N08W to 04N22W to
01S37W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 00N-05N between 18W-30W. Isolated
moderate convection is elsewhere from 00N-08N between 18W-33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb 
high over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida
Panhandle. Gentle anticyclonic flow prevails across most of the 
basin.

High pressure will persist over the NE Gulf through tonight. A 
cold front will cross the northern waters Tue and Tue night, then 
stall and weaken over the southern Gulf on Wed. Fresh to strong 
return flow will prevail across the region Thu through Fri night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the Turks and Caicos Islands through the
Windward Passage to 18N76W near the eastern tip of Jamaica.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Near the coast 
of Belize and Honduras, a surface trough extends from 19N88W to 
15N84W, with scattered showers in the vicinity of the trough. 
Fresh N to NE winds cover most of the northwestern Caribbean,
except strong near the surface trough. Moderate trades are over 
the eastern Caribbean.

Strong high pressure will build north of the area through mid 
week, resulting in strengthening trade winds and building seas 
across the Caribbean. Gale force winds are possible near the coast
of Colombia during the overnight hours Wed through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N53W to 25N65W to the 
Turks and Caicos Islands to the Windward Passage. Scattered 
showers are within 60 nm of the front. To the east, a surface 
trough is over the central Atlantic from 21N43W to 14N51W with 
scattered showers and isolated tstorms extending 180 nm SE of the 
trough axis and 60 nm NW of the trough axis, from 15N-23N between 
40W-48W. An elongated upper-level low extends its influence from 
16N-26N between 34W-45W, enhancing the showers near and east of
the surface trough. Surface ridging prevails across the eastern 
Atlantic, anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 33N23W.

The cold front extending from near 25N65W to the Windward passage
will stall from near 23.5N65W to Hispaniola tonight where it will
dissipate through Tue. Another cold front will move off the 
southeast U.S. coast later Tue and cross the western Atlantic 
waters Tue night through Wed night. Expect strengthening winds and
building seas Thu through Fri night as strong high pressure 
builds over the western Atlantic. 

$$
Hagen