000 AXNT20 KNHC 061135 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 635 AM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1135 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 04N08W to 01N07W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N30W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 200 nm south of the monsoon trough, and from 00N-05N between 14W-34W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 27N87W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across most of the basin, as noted in scatterometer data, while moderate to fresh winds are noted east of 86W. High pressure will persist over the NE Gulf through tonight. A cold front will cross the northern waters Tue and Tue night, then stall and weaken over the southern Gulf on Wed. Fresh to strong return flow will prevail across the region Thu through Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends across the western Atlantic and enters the NW Caribbean Sea from the Windward Passage SW to Jamaica near 18N77W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Near the coast of Belize and Honduras, a surface trough extends from 18N87W to 15N83W, with scattered showers and tstorms in the vicinity of the trough. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted across the western Caribbean west of 77W, while moderate trades prevail elsewhere. The weakening cold front extending from the eastern tip of Cuba to Jamaica will dissipate later today. Strong high pressure will build north of the area through mid week, resulting in strengthening trade winds and building seas across the Caribbean and Tropical N Atlantic waters. Gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia Thu night through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N56W to E Cuba near 20N74W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. To the east, a surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 21N41W to 13N50W with scattered showers in the vicinity extending 160 nm east of the trough. Surface ridging prevails across the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 32N23W. A western Atlantic cold front extending from 31N57W to the eastern tip of Cuba will stall from 31N50W to Hispaniola tonight, then dissipate on Tue. Another cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast later Tue and cross the waters Tue night through Wed night. Expect strengthening winds and building seas Thu through Fri night as strong high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. $$ MMT