000
AXNT20 KNHC 052330
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
630 PM EST Sun Jan 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough extends from 03N09W to 00N05W. The ITCZ continues
from that point to 03N24W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 00N-05N between 20W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1030 mb 
high centered near 30N89W, and another 1030 mb high centered near
22N97W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across most
of the basin, as noted in scatterometer data, while moderate to
fresh winds are noted east of 86W.

Fresh N winds across the eastern Gulf will diminish tonight into 
Mon as high pres builds over the northern waters. Another cold 
front will cross the area Tue and Tue night, then stall and weaken
over the central Gulf Wed into Wed night. Fresh to strong return 
flow will prevail across the region Thu and Thu night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends across the western Caribbean from 28N79W to
19N83W to 16N85W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the 
front. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted across the
western Caribbean west of 77W, while moderate trades prevail 
elsewhere. To the east, a surface trough is analyzed south of
Puerto Rico from 16N65W to 10N67W. 

The front is slowing down and will stall from eastern Cuba to the
E coast of Honduras tonight, then weaken Mon and dissipate Mon 
night. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the front N 
of the area by mid week. This will result in strengthening trade 
winds across the Caribbean and Tropical N Atlantic waters. Gale 
force winds will affect the waters near Colombia Thu and Fri 
nights. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N64W to E Cuba near 
22N77W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. To the
east, a surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 23N46W 
to 13N48W. Surface ridging prevails across the eastern Atlantic,
anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 38N15W. 

The cold front will stall from 24N65W to near Hispaniola Mon, 
then weaken and dissipate by Mon night. High pres will build in 
the wake of the front. Another cold front will move off the SE 
U.S. coast Tue and cross the waters Tue night and Wed. Expect 
increasing winds and building seas Thu and Thu night as strong 
high pres following the front builds over the western Atlc.

$$

ERA