739 AXNT20 KNHC 051154 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 654 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... ...Western Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front has moved off the NE Florida coast tonight bringing north to northwest gale-force winds mainly N of 28N between 66W- 80W. Expect seas in this area to range between 15-18 ft. These winds will continue through Sunday afternoon. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through 02N09W to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N34W to 01S45W. Scattered showers and tstorms are in the vicinity of the monsoon trough. Latest IR imagery indicate more activity in the the ITCZ from 01N-05N between 18W-43W. Elsewhere, scattered showers and storms are between 13W- 26W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from south central Florida near 26N81W to NW Cuba near 22N84W, then continues southwest into the NW Caribbean Sea. The tail end of the reinforcing cold front is noted 180 nm behind the main front and extends into the Gulf near 29N83W. Ridge is in place across the west central Gulf with a 1029 mb high pressure centered near 24N95W. Radar imagery shows scattered moderate convection within 120 nm E of the front. No significant convection is noted with the secondary front. Fresh to strong northerly winds across the eastern Gulf will diminish tonight into Mon as high pressure builds over the northern waters. Another cold front will cross the area Tue and Tue night, then stall and weaken over the central Gulf Wed into Wed night. Fresh to strong return flow will prevail across the region Thu and Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front is making its way across the NW Caribbean Sea tonight extending from the western Atlantic into NW Cuba from 22N82W to the Gulf of Honduras near 15N87W. Scattered showers are within 100 nm on the eastern side of the front. A second trough is present in the eastern Caribbean from 15N65W to 11N65W, with scattered showers and tstorms in the vicinity of the trough. Recent ASCAT data indicates moderate to fresh easterly trades prevailing across central and eastern Caribbean while fresh to strong NW winds accompany the front in the western Caribbean. Light to gentle winds are noted from 14N south to the coast of Venezuela. North of Colombia, ASCAT shows an area of fresh winds from 13N- 10N between 73W-77W. Strong trade winds off Colombia will diminish to fresh speeds tonight as distant high pressure moves away from the region. Strong northerly winds will persist across the Yucatan Basin and the Gulf of Honduras this morning behind a cold front moving across the NW Caribbean. This front will reach from eastern Cuba to the coast of Honduras tonight, then stall and weaken Mon and Mon night. Strong high pressure will build north of the area by mid week. This will result in strengthening trade winds across the Caribbean and Tropical N Atlantic waters, with near gale force winds expected near the coast of Colombia Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the eastern Atlantic. Cold front has entered the western Atlantic extending from 31N73W across the NW Bahamas to NW Cuba near 23N80W. Right behind it, a secondary reinforcing front is present from 31N77W to 29N80W in north central FL. Latest observations and ASCAT data indicate fresh to strong NW winds behind the front and Gale force winds north of 28N west of 77W. Scattered showers and tstorms extend to 100 nm east of the front. No significant activity is noted with the second front with the exception of strong to gale force winds behind it. Further east, the stationary front has diminished but a surface trough is present enhancing showers and tstorms in the vicinity of the trough. Remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad high pressure. A strong western Atlantic cold front will reach from just east of Bermuda to eastern Cuba tonight, then stall and weaken from 24N65W to near Hispaniola on Mon. Gale force winds and very large seas will persist today across the northern waters on either side of the front. High pressure will build across the northern waters Mon into Tue as winds and seas briefly subside. Another cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast later Tue and cross the waters Tue night through Wed night. Expect strong winds and building seas Thu and Thu night as strong high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. $$ MMT