000 AXNT20 KNHC 050556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1256 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... ...Western Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front has moved off the NE Florida coast this evening bringing north to northwest gale-force winds mainly N of 28N between 66W-80W. Expect seas in this area to range between 15-18 ft. These winds will continue through Sunday afternoon. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through 03N09W to 02N14W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N32W to 05S48W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 280 nm south of the monsoon trough between 09W-03W, and a cluster of scattered moderate to strong convection is noted along the ITCZ from 01N-04N between 35W-42W. Elsewhere, scattered showers and storms are between 13W-26W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from south central Florida near 26N81W to NW Cuba near 22N84W, then continues southwest into the NW Caribbean Sea. The tail end of the reinforcing cold front is noted 180 nm behind the main front and extends into the Gulf near 29N83W. Ridge is in place across the west central Gulf with a 1029 mb high pressure centered near 24N95W. Radar imagery shows scattered moderate convection within 120 nm E of the front. No significant convection is noted with the secondary front. A cold front extending from near Naples Florida to the western tip of Cuba will exit the basin overnight. Strong NW to N winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are expected W of the front tonight. Winds and seas will diminish Sun and Mon as high pres builds over the area. Another cold front will cross the northern Gulf Tue and Tue night, then stall and weaken over the central Gulf Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front is making its way into the NW Caribbean Sea tonight extending from the western Atlantic into NW Cuba from 21N84W to the Gulf of Honduras near 15N88W. A surface trough ahead of the front is seen from 28N77W to 23N82W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm on either sides of the trough. A second trough is present in the eastern Caribbean from 18N63W to 11N64W, with scattered showers and tstorms in the vicinity of the trough. Recent ASCAT data indicates moderate to fresh easterly trades prevailing across central and eastern Caribbean while fresh to strong NW winds accompany the front in the western Caribbean. Light to gentle winds are noted from 14N south to the coast of Venezuela. North of Colombia, ASCAT shows an area of fresh winds from 13N- 10N between 73W-77W. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to locally strong trade winds off Colombia tonight. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel tonight, bringing fresh to strong N winds to the NW Caribbean. The front will extend from eastern Cuba to the coast of Honduras Sun, then weaken and dissipate by Mon night. NE winds will strengthen off the coast of Colombia and through the Windward Passage Wed and Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the eastern Atlantic. A 1024 mb high pressure dominates the western Atlantic centered near 29N54W. To the east, a stationary front is gradually weakening in the central Atlantic near 30N37W to 19N46W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front. High pressure across the western Atlantic will shift E today ahead of a strong cold front moving E from Florida. The front will reach from 31N70W to central Cuba near 22N79W Sun morning, and from 28N65W to eastern Cuba Sun night, then stall and weaken from 23N65W to Hispaniola Mon. Gale force winds are expected tonight and Sun N of 28N following the front. A brief period of winds to gale force will precede the front N of 29N and E of 77W. High pressure will build across the area Mon and Tue $$ MMT