788 AXNT20 KNHC 042328 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 628 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... ...Western Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front is expected to move off the NE Florida coast this evening. North to northwest gale-force winds are expected on 05/0000 UTC N of 28N between 66W-80W as the front moves eastward across the Atlantic. Seas in this area will range between 15-18 ft. These winds will continue through 05/1800 UTC. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through 00N09W to 00N07W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N25W to 01S44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-08N and west of 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from N Florida near 28N83W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 27N87W to inland S Mexico. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 28N82W to 25N83W. Radar imagery shows scattered moderate convection within 120 nm E of the front. To the west, the tail end of a secondary front extends across the Florida Panhandle with no significant convection noted. Surface ridging is building in the wake of the fronts, anchored by a 1035 mb high centered over northern Mexico. The cold front will reach from south Florida to the Yucatan channel tonight, then exit the basin overnight. Strong NW to N winds and 8 to 12 ft seas are expected W of the front tonight. Winds and seas will diminish Sun and Mon as high pressure continues to build over the area. The next cold front will cross the northern Gulf Tue and Tue night, then stall and weaken over the central Gulf Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is over the E Caribbean from 15N63W to 11N64W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm on either sides of the trough. To the west, a 1018 mg surface low is centered near 17N86W. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds across the south central Caribbean between 70W-80W, while gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. High pressure N of the area will continue to support fresh to occasionally strong trade winds off Colombia tonight. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel tonight, bringing fresh N winds to the NW Caribbean. The front will extend from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sun, then weaken and dissipate Mon. NE winds will strengthen off the coast of Colombia and through the Windward Passage Tue night and Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the eastern Atlantic. A 1024 mb high pressure dominates the western Atlantic centered near 28N60W. To the east, a stationary front enters the central Atlantic near 31N38W to a 1013 mb low near 22N43W, then continues SW to 19N49W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 22N41W to 17N47W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front and trough. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh northerly winds behind the front, and moderate behind the pre-frontal trough. High pressure across the western Atlantic will shift E ahead of a strong cold front that is currently crossing Florida. The front will reach from 31N76W to southern Florida tonight, and from 28N65W to eastern Cuba Sun night, then stall and weaken from 23N65W to Hispaniola Mon. Gale-force winds are expected tonight and Sun N of 28N following the front. A brief period of winds to gale-force will precede the front. High pressure will build across the area Mon and Tue. $$ ERA