000 AXNT20 KNHC 041757 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1257 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... ...Western Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front is expected to move off the NE Florida coast this evening. North to northwest gale-force winds are expected on 05/0000 UTC with seas 15-18 ft. Expect these winds to occur N of 28N between 66W-80W as the front moves eastward across the Atlantic. The gale event is forecast to end on 05/1800 UTC. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through 01N00W to 01N07W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N20W to 04N38W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-07N between 10W-34W, and from 07N-04S between 34W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from N Florida near 31N83W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 21N89W to S Mexico near 16N92W. Radar imagery shows scattered moderate convection within 120 nm E of front N of 26N. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 90 nm E of the front. A 1032 mb is over N Mexico near 26N102W. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over Texas with SW flow over the Gulf of Mexico and strong subsidence. The cold front will reach from south Florida to the Yucatan channel this evening, then exit the basin overnight. Strong NW to N winds and 8 to 12 ft seas are expected west of the front today. Winds and seas will diminish Sun and Mon as high pressure builds over the area. Another cold front will move across the northern Gulf Tue and Tue night, then stall and weaken on Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is over the E Caribbean from 18N62W to 11N63W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the trough. 10-25 tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia and weakest winds S of Cuba. A large upper level high is centered over the S Bahamas near 21N72W. Strong subsidence is over the Caribbean and Central America. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to occasionally strong trade winds off Colombia through tonight. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel tonight, bringing fresh northerly winds to the NW Caribbean. The front will extend from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sun, then weaken and dissipate on Mon. NE winds will strengthen off the coast of Colombia and through the Windward Passage Tue night and Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the eastern Atlantic. A 1025 mb high pressure dominates the western Atlantic centered near 28N60W. A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N39W to a 1015 mb low near 22N44W, then continues SW to 19N49W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 22N41W to 16N49W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front and trough. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh northerly winds behind the front, and moderate behind the pre-frontal trough. High pressure across the western Atlantic will shift eastward today ahead of a strong cold front moving into Florida. The front will reach from 31N76W to southern Florida tonight, and from 28N65W to eastern Cuba Sun night, then stall and weaken from 23N65W to Hispaniola Mon. Gale force winds are expected this evening through Sun evening north of 28N following the front, with brief winds to gale force possible just ahead of the front. High pressure will build across the area Mon and Tue. $$ Formosa