000 AXNT20 KNHC 041140 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 640 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... ...Western Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front is expected to move off the NE Florida coast today. North to northwest gale-force winds are expected to develop behind the front, Saturday evening. By Sunday morning, 05/1200 UTC, the front is expected to be from 31N69W to 22N78W with north to nw gale-force winds following the front. Expect these winds to occur N of 28N between 66W-80W as the front moves eastward across the Atlantic. Seas will range from 12 to 20 feet in mixed swell. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through 00N09W to 01N12W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N29W to 00S49W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen within 120 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 17W-48W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level ridge continues to shift eastward into the western Atlantic and Caribbean as a digging upper-level low slowly slides eastward. At the surface, a cold front extends from 29N85W to 23N89W to 18N94W in the Bay of Campeche. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed along the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers are noted along the front and the trough, with scattered moderate convection north of 24N between 83W-86W. To the northwest, the tail end of the reinforcing front in the NW Gulf from 29N92W to 24N97W is gradually weakening. No significant convection is noted along the front. Earlier scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong northerly winds north of 21N and west of 93W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted across the eastern Gulf east of the front. The cold front in the FL Panhandle will reach from central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula later today, then exit the basin tonight. Strong NW to N winds and 8 to 12 ft seas are expected west of the front today. Winds and seas will diminish Sun and Mon as high pressure builds over the area. Another cold front will move across the northern Gulf Tue and Tue night, then stall and weaken on Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level ridging continues to dominate the basin. This is keeping drier conditions into the area and inhibiting deep convection. However, two areas of moisture are observed on the TPW. A surface trough eastern Hispaniola and second trough along the Lesser Antilles. Both features are moving across the eastern and central Caribbean. This is bringing scattered showers across the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trades north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted in the NW Caribbean ahead of the incoming system in the Gulf. Gentle to moderate trades are in the eastern Caribbean. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to occasionally strong trade winds off Colombia through tonight. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel tonight, bringing fresh northerly winds to the NW Caribbean. The front will extend from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sun, then weaken and dissipate on Mon. NE winds will strengthen off the coast of Colombia Tue night and Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the eastern Atlantic. A Bermuda 1025 mb high pressure dominates the western Atlantic centered near 29N60W while in the central Atlantic a cold front enters the forecast area near 31N38W and stretches southwest to a 1015 mb low pressure near 22N43W, then continues SW to 19N49W. Front weakens from that point to 19N59W. Scattered showers are present along the front. A pre-frontal trough extends from 23N40W to 16N48W, with scattered showers along the trough north of 16N between 39W-43W. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh northerly winds behind the front, and moderate behind the pre-frontal trough. High pressure across the western Atlantic will shift eastward today ahead of a strong cold front moving into Florida. The front will reach from 31N76W to southern Florida tonight, and from 28N65W to eastern Cuba Sun night, then stall and weaken from 23N65W to Hispaniola Mon. Gale force W to NW winds are expected tonight and Sun north of 28N following the front. High pressure will build across the area Mon and Tue. $$ MMT