000 AXNT20 KNHC 040555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1255 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... ...Western Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front is expected to move off the NE Florida coast tonight into Saturday morning, stretching from 31N75W to 23N80W. North to northwest gale-force winds are expected to develop behind the front by Saturday, 05/0300 UTC. By Sunday morning, 05/1200 UTC, the front is expected to be from 31N69W to 22N78W with north to northwest gale-force winds following the front. Expect these winds to occur N of 28N between 66W-80W as the front moves eastward across the Atlantic. Seas will range from 12 to 20 feet in mixed swell. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through 02N10W to 03N12W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00S46W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen within 120 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 15W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level ridge continues to shift eastward into the western Atlantic and Caribbean as a digging upper-level low slowly slides eastward. At the surface, a 1012 mb low is analyzed near 26N89W. A cold front extends east of the low to the Florida panhandle near 30N87W, and southwest of the low to the coast of Mexico near 19N97W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 17N90W to 22N89W in the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers are noted along the front and the trough. To the northwest, a 1013 mb surface low is centered near southern Louisiana, with a reinforcing front extending southwest from 29N93W to South Padre Island, Texas near 26N97W. No significant convection is noted along the front in the northwest Gulf. Surface ridging prevails across the eastern Gulf waters, mainly east of 85W. Scatterometer winds indicate fresh to strong northerly winds north of 21N and west of 93W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted across the eastern Gulf east of the front. The cold front will move eastward across the Gulf Sat, then exit the Gulf on Sat night. A reinforcing cold front, which has just reached the NW Gulf, will cross the northern Gulf through Sat night. Strengthening NW to N winds and building seas are expected across the Gulf in association with these fronts. Winds and seas will diminish Sun and Mon as high pressure builds over the region. Another strong cold front will move southeastward across the waters Tue and Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level ridging continues to dominate the basin. This is bringing relatively dry air into the area and inhibiting deep convection. However, two areas of moisture are observed on the latest TPW is moving across the eastern and central Caribbean. This is bringing scattered showers across Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Hispaniola and Jamaica. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trades north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted in the NW Caribbean ahead of the incoming system in the Gulf. Gentle to moderate trades are in the eastern Caribbean. The Bermuda High north of the area is supporting fresh to strong trades off Colombia through Sat night. These will diminish as the high shifts eastward. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean late Sat, followed by strengthening N winds and building seas. The front will extend from E Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sun afternoon, then weaken and dissipate on Mon. The trades will strengthen again over the central and W Caribbean Tue night and Wed as a strong Bermuda High redevelops north of the area. Moderate long-period NW swell will reach the tropical N Atlantic waters beginning on Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the eastern Atlantic. A Bermuda 1025 mb high pressure dominates the western Atlantic centered near 29N64W while in the central Atlantic a cold front enters the central Atlantic near 30N40W and stretches southwest to 20N49W, then becomes weak through 18N59W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 30N38W to a 1016 mb low near 27N39W to 18N50W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the trough and low north of 19N between 38W-44W, while scattered showers are noted along the front south of 20N west of 48W. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh northerly winds behind the front, and moderate behind the pre-frontal trough. The Bermuda High will shift eastward tonight and Sat ahead of a strong cold front approaching the SE U.S. coast. The front will move offshore Sat afternoon, reach from near Bermuda to E Cuba on Sun afternoon, extend from 24N65W to the Windward Passage on Mon afternoon, and then dissipate over the area on Tue. Near gale to gale-force SW winds ahead of the front and W to NW gales behind the front are expected Sat night and Sun over the forecast waters north of 28N. High pressure will build across the northern waters Mon and Tue as the front stalls and weakens. A second - likely weaker - cold front should emerge off of the SE U.S. coast on Tue night or Wed. $$ MMT