000 AXNT20 KNHC 032333 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 633 PM EST Fri Jan 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... ...Western Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front is expected to move off the NE Florida coast tonight into Saturday morning, stretching from 31N75W to 23N80W. North to northwest gale-force winds are expected to develop behind the front by Saturday, 05/0300 UTC. By Sunday morning, 05/1200 UTC, the front is expected to be from 31N69W to 22N78W with north to northwest gale-force winds following the front. Expect these winds to occur N of 28N between 66W-80W as the front moves eastward across the Atlantic. Seas will range from 12 to 20 feet in mixed swell. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through 02N10W to 02N06W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 140 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 15W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level ridge continues to shift eastward into the western Atlantic and Caribbean as a digging upper-level low slowly slides eastward. At the surface, a 1008 low is analyzed near 27N92W. A cold front extends east of the low to the Florida panhandle near 30N87W, and southwest of the low to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 30N87W to 28N89W. Scattered showers are noted along the front, while scattered moderate convection is noted along the trough. To the southwest, a 1010 mb surface low is centered near 22N93W, with surface trough extending from 26N92W to the low to 18N93W. Surface ridging prevails across the eastern Gulf waters, mainly east of 89W. At 2100 UTC, ship 3EMB9 reported NNE 40 kt from their anemometer located well above 10 m. Scatterometer winds also reported gale force near the front, though these are not considered reliable due to rain contamination. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted across the eastern Gulf east of the front. The cold front will move eastward across the Gulf tonight and Sat, then exit the Gulf on Sat night. A reinforcing cold front will cross the northern Gulf tonight through Sat night. Strengthening winds and building seas are expected across the Gulf in association with these fronts. Winds and seas will diminish Sun and Mon as high pressure builds over the region. Another strong cold front will move SE across the waters Tue and Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level ridging continues to dominate the basin. This is bringing relatively dry air into the area and inhibiting deep convection. However, two areas of moisture are observed on the latest TPW is moving across the eastern and central Caribbean. A surface trough is analyzed from 17N68W to 14N69W. This is bringing scattered showers across Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Hispaniola and Jamaica. Another surface trough extends across the Lesser Antilles from 16N59W to 11N62W. This trough is also bringing showers to the islands. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trades north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted in the NW Caribbean ahead of the incoming system in the Gulf. Gentle to moderate trades are in the eastern Caribbean. The Bermuda High north of the area is supporting fresh to strong SE winds near the Gulf of Honduras through tonight and fresh to strong trades off Colombia through Sat night. These will diminish as the high shifts eastward. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean late Sat, followed by strengthening N winds and building seas. The front will extend from E Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sun afternoon, then weaken and dissipate on Mon. The trades will increase again over the central and W Caribbean Tue night and Wed as the Bermuda High redevelops north of the area. Moderate long-period NW swell will reach the tropical N Atlantic waters beginning on Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the eastern Atlantic. A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N42W and stretches southwest to 20N58W, then becomes weak through 20N70W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 30N41W to a 1014 mb low near 26N42W to 20N46W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the trough and low, while scattered showers are noted along the front. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh southerly winds ahead of the pre-frontal trough, and moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the cold front. Surface ridging is building in the wake of the front across the western Atlantic, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 30N67W. To the east, a surface trough is analyzed over the African coastline from 26N15W to 12N17W. The Bermuda High will shift eastward tonight and Sat ahead of a strong cold front approaching the SE U.S. coast. The front will move offshore Sat afternoon, reach from near Bermuda to E Cuba on Sun afternoon, extend from 24N65W to the Windward Passage on Mon afternoon, and then dissipate over the area on Tue. Near gale to gale-force SW winds ahead of the front and W to NW gales behind the front are expected Sat night and Sun over the forecast waters north of 28N. High pressure will build across the northern waters Mon and Tue as the front stalls and weakens. A second - weaker - cold front is likely to emerge off of the SE U.S. coast on Tue night or Wed. $$ ERA