000 AXNT20 KNHC 031803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 103 PM EST Fri Jan 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... ...Western Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front is expected to move off the NE Florida coast by late Friday night into Saturday morning, stretching from 31N75W to 23N80W. North to northwest gale- force winds are expected to develop behind the front by Saturday, 05/0300 UTC. By Sunday morning, 05/1200 UTC, the front is expected to be from 31N69W to 22N78W with north to northwest gale- force winds following the front. Expect these gale- force winds to occur N of 28N between 66W- 80W as the front moves eastward across the Atlantic. Seas will range from 12 to 20 feet in mixed swell. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian to 02N06W. The ITCZ continues from 02N06W to 04N27W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is within 140 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 12W-27W. GULF OF MEXICO... The upper level ridge continues to shift eastward into the western Atlantic and Caribbean as a digging upper level low slowly slides eastward. As of 03/1500 UTC, a 1009 low is analyzed near 27N94W. A cold front extends east of the low to the coast of Alabama near 30N88W and south of the low to the coast of Mexico near 22N98W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 19N95W to 24N95W with a 1008 mb located along the trough near 21N95W. A squall line from 26N94W to the central Louisiana coast near 30N92W is quickly moving eastward. Some showers are also noted near the pre- frontal trough. Otherwise, the rest of the Gulf remains quiet. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh southerly winds in the eastern Gulf ahead of the front. Fresh to strong NW winds are behind the front. The cold front will move eastward as a cold front across the Gulf later today through Saturday, then exit the Gulf on Saturday night. A reinforcing cold front will cross the northern Gulf tonight through Saturday night. Strengthening winds and building seas are expected across the Gulf in association with these fronts. Winds and seas will diminish Sunday and Monday as high pressure builds over the region. Another strong cold front will move SE across the waters Tuesday and Tuesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level ridging continues to dominate the Caribbean. This is bringing relatively dry air into the area and inhibiting deep convection. However, a plume of moisture observed on the latest TPW is moving across the eastern and central Caribbean. This is bringing scattered showers across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Showers are also moving south of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola toward Jamaica. A trough is beginning to approach the Lesser Antilles, analyzed from 11N61W to 17N59W. This is also bringing showers to the islands. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong trades north of Colombia, with fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted in the NW Caribbean ahead of the incoming system in the Gulf. Gentle to moderate trades are in the eastern Caribbean. Strong SE winds near the Gulf of Honduras will diminish tonight. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trades off Colombia through Saturday night, with diminishing winds expected on Sun as the high shifts eastward. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean late Saturday, followed by strengthening northerly winds and building seas. The front will extend from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sunday, then weaken and dissipate on Monday. Trade winds will strengthen off Colombia late Tuesday and Tuesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N44W and stretches southwest to 24N53W to south of the Turks and Caicos Islands near 21N72W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 21N46W to 31N42W. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are seen ahead of the front from 21N-31N between 36W-49W. A trough is also noted in the central Atlantic from 13N51W to 20N50W with no significant convection associated with it. Another trough is off the west coast of Africa from 11N18W to 23N19W. Showers are moving across the Cabo Verde Islands to Mauritania. High pressure dominates the western Atlantic anchored by a 1024 mb high near 31N64W. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh southerly winds ahead of the pre-frontal trough, and moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the cold front. The high pressure across the western Atlantic will shift eastward tonight into Saturday ahead of a strong cold front approaching the southeast U.S. coast. The front will move offshore on Saturday, reach from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba on Sunday, then from 23N65W to Hispaniola on Monday. Gale force W to NW winds are expected Saturday night and Sunday over the forecast waters north of 28N following the front. High pressure will build across the northern waters Monday through Tuesday as the front stalls and weakens. $$ AKR