000 AXNT20 KNHC 031149 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 649 AM EST Fri Jan 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... ...Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning... The 42-hour forecast from 03/0600 UTC, starting on Saturday night, consists of: a cold front from 31N76W to 26N86W. Expect W gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, to the north of 29N to the west of the cold front. The gale-force wind conditions are forecast to continue until at least Saturday night/possibly on Sunday morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC; and the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC; or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 02N, to 02N05W. The ITCZ continues from 02N05W to 03N13W, to 04N19W to 04N26W, to 02N38W. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong to the north of the ITCZ between 14W and 35W, and to the south of the ITCZ between 12W and 25W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 07N southward from 52W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... The GFS model shows large-scale anticyclonic wind flow that covers the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and the Atlantic Ocean from 60W westward. The GFS model for 250 mb shows an anticyclonic circulation center between Jamaica and Haiti. The anticyclonic circulation center is nearly on top of the SE Bahamas at 500 mb. The anticyclonic circulation center is about 190 nm to the ENE of the NW Bahamas at 700 mb. A stationary front passes through the coastal sections of south central Louisiana, to 26N94W, to the coast of Mexico near 23.5N98W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to the west of the line that runs from SE Louisiana to the coast of Mexico along 92W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The current stationary front will be overtaken by a strong cold front, that will move off the Texas coast later today. The cold front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche tonight. The strong cold front will exit from the Gulf of Mexico by Saturday afternoon. Increasing wind speeds and building sea heights are expected across the Gulf of Mexico, as the front moves across the Gulf waters. The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish early next week, as high pressure builds across the region behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model shows large-scale anticyclonic wind flow that covers the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and the Atlantic Ocean from 60W westward. The GFS model for 250 mb shows an anticyclonic circulation center between Jamaica and Haiti. The anticyclonic circulation center is nearly on top of the SE Bahamas at 500 mb. The anticyclonic circulation center is about 190 nm to the ENE of the NW Bahamas at 700 mb. Comparatively drier air in subsidence in water vapor imagery covers the Caribbean Sea to the east of the line from 20N82W to 10N81W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence also is in the Atlantic Ocean from 15N southward from 50W westward, and from 10N to 15N between 36W and 50W. The latest scatterometer data, from 03/0200 UTC, show a trough along 64W/65W, to the east and southeast of Puerto Rico, from 13N to 19N. Broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds and rainshowers are from 13N to 20N between 61W and 70W, from 13N southward between 64W and 70W, and from 15N southward between 60W and 64W. Similar clouds and precipitation are in the Atlantic Ocean from 14N to 18N between 52W and 60W. High pressure to the north of the area will maintain fresh to occasionally strong trade winds off Colombia during the next several days. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel into the northwest Caribbean Sea on Saturday. The cold front will be followed by an increase in the wind speeds and the sea heights. The cold front will reach from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua on Sunday, then weaken and dissipate on Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The GFS model shows large-scale anticyclonic wind flow that covers the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and the Atlantic Ocean from 60W westward. The GFS model for 250 mb shows an anticyclonic circulation center between Jamaica and Haiti. The anticyclonic circulation center is nearly on top of the SE Bahamas at 500 mb. The anticyclonic circulation center is about 190 nm to the ENE of the NW Bahamas at 700 mb. An upper level trough is digging, into the discussion area, in the central Atlantic Ocean, along 50W, from 22N northward. The trough supports a cold front that passes through 32N47W, to 23N60W, and curving to 23N72W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, are from 21N northward between 32W and the cold front. An upper level trough extends from a 37N22W cyclonic circulation center, through 32N25W, to 23N26W. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. High pressure in the western Atlantic Ocean will shift eastward tonight, in advance of a strong cold front in the Gulf of Mexico. The front will move off the NE Florida coast on Saturday. The cold front will reach from near Bermuda to E Cuba on Sunday, and from 23N65W to Hispaniola on Monday. Gale-force westerly winds are expected behind the front on Saturday night and Sunday, over the forecast waters north of 28N. High pressure will prevail across the region on Monday and Tuesday. $$ MT