000 AXNT20 KNHC 012332 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 632 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 01N09W to 03N04W. The ITCZ continues from 03N04W to 04N25W to 00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the ITCZ between 10W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1015 mb surface low is centered over the southwest Gulf near 23N97W. A surface trough extends north from the low to 26N97W. A warm front extends east from the low to 22N89W. The front transitions to a stationary front from that point to 24N80W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near 31N88W. The low will lift north into Texas tonight with the front following it. A cold front will emerge off the Texas coast by Thu afternoon, and reach from Alabama to the Bay of Campeche by Fri afternoon. A reinforcing cold front will follow into NW Gulf Thu night, reaching from SW Louisiana to NE Mexico by Fri afternoon. Both fronts will move east of the Gulf by Sat afternoon. Expect increasing winds and building seas across the Gulf both ahead of, and behind, these fronts as they move across the Gulf waters. Winds and seas will diminish Sun and Mon as high pressure builds over the Gulf in the wake of the second front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Easterly trades prevail across the basin with ASCAT indicating moderate to fresh winds across the central Caribbean mainly south of 13N between 70W-80W. Scattered showers are noted across Central America, with some of this activity reaching the Caribbean waters mainly south of 10N. A surface trough is analyzed over the northeast portion of the basin from 20N64W to 16N63W. This trough will enhance showers across the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico through the next 48 hours. The Bermuda High north of the area will maintain fresh to occasionally strong trades off Colombia through the next several days. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean Sat, followed by an increase in winds and seas. The front will reach from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua by Sun afternoon and dissipate by Mon afternoon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N64W to 24N77W, then transitions to a stationary front from that point to 24N80W. A surface trough extends from 23N63W to 20N64W. Another trough extends from 22N54W to 19N56W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 29N36W to 22N42W. Scattered showers are noted along the northern portion of this trough. A stationary front extends along 30N between 34W- 47W with scattered showers. Surface ridging prevails across the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 30N11W. The cold front over the west Atlantic will stall and weaken along roughly 25N by Thu afternoon, and then dissipate Fri. A new and stronger cold front is forecast to move off the NE Florida coast by early Sat, followed closely by a reinforcing front by Sat afternoon. The fronts will merge and reach from near Bermuda to E Cuba by Sun afternoon, and then extend from 31N55W to Hispaniola by Mon afternoon. Winds to gale force are possible both ahead and behind the cold fronts Sat into Sun over the waters north of 28N. $$ ERA