000 AXNT20 KNHC 011752 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1252 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 01N, to 03N13W. The ITCZ continues from 03N13W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 180 nm to the south of the monsoon trough, and along the ITCZ from 00N-27N 05W-32W. Scattered showers are elsewhere from 38W westward. GULF OF MEXICO... Ridge over the central Caribbean in combination with mid level trough is enhancing west to southwesterly flow across the Gulf of Mexico. Widespread broken to overcast cloud deck extends from the Pacific across Mexico into the western Gulf associated to an upper trough in the EPAC. A 1015 mb low is centered near 21N96W with a stationary front extending east to the Florida Straits. Scattered showers are near the vicinity of the boundary. Areas of fog and light rain is reported near the NW Gulf while clear conditions dominate from 89W eastward to the Florida coast. ASCAT data also suggest east to northeast light to moderate winds behind the front and moderate southeast winds in the NW Gulf. Broken to overcast conditions will continue to increase in coverage across the Gulf as upper trough gradually makes its way eastward across Mexico. The low pressure will lift north into Texas today with the front moving over the western Gulf as a warm front and high pressure shifting east. A cold front will emerge off the Texas coast late Thu, and reach from the western Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche by late Fri. A reinforcing cold front will follow into the northwest Gulf Thu night into Fri morning, reaching from southeast Louisiana to northeast Mexico by late Fri. Both fronts will move east of the Gulf by late Sat. Expect increasing winds and building seas across the Gulf both ahead of, and behind, these fronts as they move across the Gulf waters. Winds and seas will diminish through Sun as high pressure builds over the Gulf in the wake of the second front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Easterly trades dominate across the Caribbean Sea with ASCAT indicating moderate to fresh winds across the east and central Caribbean with the exception of fresh to strong winds south of 13N and west of 74W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present near the coast of Panama. Isolated showers are possible in the Windward Passage and western Haiti while east of 73W is High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to occasionally strong trades off Colombia through the remainder of the week and the weekend. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean Sat, followed by an increase in winds and seas. The front will reach from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua by Sun afternoon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 30N68W in the western Atlantic Ocean, to 24N76W in the Bahamas and stalls into the Straits of Florida near 23N81W. A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N36W and curves northwest near 30N48W to a warm front. Surface trough ahead of the front extends from 21N41W to 30N32W. Scattered moderate convection extends around 180 nm SE of the front. To the SW, two troughs are present. First trough is near 18N55W to 23N52W with scattered showers in the area, and second trough from 16N63W to 23N63W. A cold front in the western Atlantic will stall and weaken along roughly 25N by Thu afternoon, and then dissipate Fri. A new, stronger, cold front is forecast to move off the NE Florida coast by late Fri into early Sat, followed closely by a reinforcing front by early Sat afternoon. The fronts will merge and reach from near Bermuda to E Cuba by Sun afternoon. Winds to gale force are possible both ahead and behind the cold fronts Sat into Sun over the waters north of 28N. $$ Torres