000 AXNT20 KNHC 011152 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 652 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 01N, to 02N10W and 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 04N18W 03N25W 02N30W 01N32W 01N35W, to the Equator along 39W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 07W and 35W, and to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 07W westward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 05N southward from 35W westward. GULF OF MEXICO... The GFS model, for 500 mb and for 700 mb, shows westerly and anticyclonic wind flow, across the Gulf of Mexico. The anticyclonic wind flow is moving around an anticyclonic circulation center that ranges in position from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico at 500 mb to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico at 700 mb. The GFS model for 250 mb shows an anticyclonic circulation center in the central Caribbean Sea. A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida, to the coastal waters of the Yucatan Peninsula, to a SW Gulf of Mexico 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 21N96W. The stationary front continues from the 21N96W low pressure center to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Upper level SW wind flow is pushing high level moisture from Mexico across the entire Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 25N southward, and from 26N northward from 88W eastward. The current stationary front, with a SW Gulf of Mexico low pressure center, will move northward, into Texas today. The front will move through the western Gulf of Mexico as a warm front. The trailing end of the front will emerge off the Texas coast as a cold front late Thursday, and reach from the western Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche by late Friday. A reinforcing cold front will follow into the northwest Gulf of Mexico from Thursday night into Friday morning, reaching from southeast Louisiana to northeast Mexico by late Friday. Both fronts will move east of the Gulf by late Saturday. Expect increasing winds and building seas across the Gulf of Mexico, both ahead of, and behind, these fronts, as they move across the Gulf waters. The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish through Sunday, as high pressure builds across the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of the second front. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model, for 700 mb, shows an inverted trough, extending from the N coast of Colombia, to the coast of Cuba along 80W. The GFS model for 250 mb shows an anticyclonic circulation center in the central Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 12N southward between 75W and 80W. High pressure to the north of the area will maintain fresh to occasionally strong trade winds off Colombia through the weekend. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean Saturday. The cold front will be followed by increased wind speeds and sea heights. The cold front is forecast to reach from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua by Sunday afternoon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N69W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 24N76W in the Bahamas, passing just to the south of Andros Island in the Bahamas, to the Straits of Florida near 23.5N81W. The front becomes stationary in the Straits of Florida, and it continues toward the southwest, into the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 24N northward between 66W and 76W. A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N35W to 30N42W, to 31N51W. The front becomes stationary at 31N51W, and it continues beyond 32N53W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 135 nm to the south and southeast of the front, from 28N northward and from 41W toward the east and NE; within 120 nm to the north of the cold front from 44W eastward; and from 30N northward between 50W and 56W. An upper level trough is in the eastern sections of the Atlantic Ocean, along 32N28W 22N33W 13N41W. A surface trough is along 38W/39W from 19N to 25N. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. The current western Atlantic Ocean cold front will reach from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas late today. The front will stall and weaken along roughly 25N by Thursday afternoon, and then dissipate on Friday. A new and stronger cold front is forecast to move off the NE Florida coast by late Friday into early Saturday. The front will be followed closely by a reinforcing front by early Saturday afternoon. The fronts will merge and reach from near Bermuda to E Cuba by Sunday afternoon. Wind speeds to gale force are possible both ahead of and behind the cold fronts, from Saturday into Sunday, in the waters that are to the north of 28N. $$ MT