000 AXNT20 KNHC 010604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 104 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 03N26W 02N35W, crossing the Equator along 39W, to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong to the south and east of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, and within 210 nm of the monsoon trough/ITCZ on the northern side between 20W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... The GFS model, for 500 mb and for 700 mb, shows westerly and anticyclonic wind flow, across the Gulf of Mexico. The anticyclonic wind flow is moving around an anticyclonic circulation center that ranges in position from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico at 500 mb to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico at 700 mb. The GFS model for 250 mb shows an anticyclonic circulation center in the central Caribbean Sea. A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida, to the coastal waters of the Yucatan Peninsula, to a SW Gulf of Mexico 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 21N96W. The stationary front continues from the 21N96W low pressure center to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Upper level SW wind flow is pushing high level moisture from Mexico across the entire Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 26N southward, and from 26N northward from 87W eastward. The current stationary front, with a SW Gulf of Mexico low pressure center, will move northward tomorrow on Wednesday. The frontal boundary will dissipate in the northwest Gulf by Thu. A strong cold front will move off the Texas coast Thu night. This front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche by Fri afternoon, and push south and east of the Gulf Sat afternoon. Expect increasing winds and building seas across the Gulf both ahead of, and behind, the front as it moves across the Gulf waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model, for 700 mb, shows an inverted trough, extending from the N coast of Colombia, to the coast of Cuba along 80W. The GFS model for 250 mb shows an anticyclonic circulation center in the central Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 13N southward between 74W and 80W. The Bermuda High north of the area will maintain fresh to occasionally strong trades off Colombia through the weekend. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean Sat, with an increase in winds and seas behind the front. The front should reach from E Cuba to Nicaragua by Sun afternoon. No significant long-period swell should impact the waters for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N69W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 28N73W, across Andros Island in the Bahamas, to the Straits of Florida near 23.5N81.5W. The front becomes stationary in the Straits of Florida, and it continues toward the southwest, into the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the northwest of the line 30N54W 27N66W 23N77W, within 300 nm to the north on the eastern end of the line, and within 90 nm to the north of the line on the western end of the line. A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N37W to 31N44W, to 31N50W. The front becomes stationary at 31N50W, and it continues beyond 32N54W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 30N northward between 30W and 55W. High level clouds cover the area from 15N northward between 30W and 55W. An upper level trough is in the eastern sections of the Atlantic Ocean, along 32N28W 22N33W 13N41W. A surface trough is along 27N36W 23N38W 19N38W. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. The current western Atlantic Ocean cold front will reach from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas on Wed afternoon. The front will stall and weaken along roughly 25N by Thu afternoon, and then dissipate Fri. A new, stronger, cold front is forecast to move off the NE Florida coast by late Fri, reach the NW Bahamas by Sat afternoon, and extend from near Bermuda to E Cuba by Sun afternoon. $$ MT