000
AXNT20 KNHC 312333
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
633 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
07N15W. The ITCZ extends from 07N15W to 03N25W to 01N37W to the
coast of Brazil near 02S43W. Isolated moderate convection is
within 240 nm of the axis. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 31/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from the Straits of
Florida near 24N80W to the Yucatan Channel near 22N86W to the
south central Gulf of Mexico near 22N90W. A stationary front
continues to a 1013 mb low in the Bay of Campeche near 21N96W. A
stationary front extends south from the low to S Mexico near
18N93W. Scattered showers are over the Bay of Campeche within 180
nm of the low. A 1026 mb high is over central Texas near 31N97W. 

In the upper levels, zonal flow is noted with strong subsidence. 

The cold front will stall later today near Cuba and N Yucatan. 
The low and accompanying boundary will then lift northward through
Wed, dissipating over the northwest Gulf by Thu. A strong cold 
front will move off the Texas coast Thu night. This front will 
reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche by Fri 
afternoon, and push south and east of the Gulf Sat afternoon. 
Expect increasing winds and building seas across the Gulf both 
ahead of, and behind, the front as it shifts across the Gulf 
waters. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are over the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto
Rico, and Hispaniola. Elsewhere isolated moderate convection is 
over the SW Caribbean S of 12N to include Costa Rica, Panama, and
N Colombia. 5-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with 
strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. 

In the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over the
W Caribbean near 13N79W. Strong subsidence covers most of the 
Caribbean Sea except over the SW Caribbean.

The Bermuda High north of the area will maintain fresh trades off
Colombia through the weekend. Long-period N swell propagating 
through the Atlantic passages and the tropical Atlantic waters off
the Leeward and Windward Islands will subside by early Wed. A 
cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel into the 
northwest Caribbean Sat, with an increase in winds and seas behind
the front. The front should reach from E Cuba to Nicaragua by 
Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N71W to the Straits of
Florida near 24N80W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm E of the
front N of 28N. A 1019 mb high is over the central Atlantic near
26N61W. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 25N36W to
20N38W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. 

Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level trough is over
the E Atlantic with axis from 31N30W to 16N40W to 13N50W.

The W Atlantic cold front will reach from near Bermuda to the 
central Bahamas on Wed afternoon. The front will stall and weaken
along roughly 25N by Thu afternoon, and then dissipate Fri. A 
new, stronger cold front is forecast to move off the NE Florida 
coast by late Fri, reach the NW Bahamas by Sat afternoon, and 
extend from near Bermuda to E Cuba by Sun afternoon.

$$
Formosa