000
AXNT20 KNHC 311750
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1250 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1745 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough extends from the southern coast of Africa near
01S09W to 04N01W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N33W to
the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Some isolated showers and 
tstorms are near the monsoon trough but more scattered moderate 
convection is seen along the ITCZ from 00N-05N between 04W-33W. A 
mix of low to mid and high level clouds prevail across most of 
the NE coast of Brazil and near the ITCZ from 04S-02N between 
34W-46W. Some precipitation may be reaching the waters near the 
coast of Brazil with this activity. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

Large scale SW-to-W wind flow, from 250 mb to 700 mb, according 
to the latest observations, spans the Gulf of Mexico. Cold front 
passes through central Florida near 26N81W, then continues as a 
stationary front near 22N89W in the central Gulf to a 1015 mb 
low pressure near 20N95W to the Mexican coast near 18N94W. Broken
to overcast low to mid level clouds cover the W and SW Gulf, west
of 94W to south central Texas. Scattered showers and drizzle may
reach the ground along the stationary front. Near the coast of 
Florida, scattered showers and isolated tstorms extends from the 
Florida Keys to north of the Yucatan Peninsula. A 1025 mb high 
pressure builds across the NW Gulf with latest ASCAT data and 
obs indicating moderate to fresh northeast wind behind the front.

The cold front will stall later today. The low and accompanying 
boundary will then lift northward through Wed, dissipating over 
the northwest Gulf by Thu. A strong cold front will move off the 
Texas coast Thu night. This front will reach from the Florida 
Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche by Fri evening, and push south 
and east of the Gulf Sat. Expect increasing winds and building 
seas across the Gulf both ahead of, and behind, the front as it 
shifts across the Gulf waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An inverted trough currently is present across the SW Caribbean 
while elongated trough extends from the Atlantic into the eastern 
Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air in subsidence covers the 
area that is from 09N in Venezuela to 20N between 60W-70W, and 
more humid conditions seen from 09N-17N west of 75W with scattered
showers in the vicinity. The Colombian low is enhancing scattered
showers near the coast of Colombia. ASCAT data indicates moderate
to fresh winds north of Colombia west of 71W, and light to moderate
easterly trades across the eastern and western Caribbean.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to occasionally
strong trade winds off Colombia through the week. Long-period N 
swell propagating through the Atlantic passages and the tropical 
Atlantic waters off the Leeward and Windward Islands will subside 
by Wed. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel into 
the northwest Caribbean Sat, with an increase in winds and seas 
behind the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N73W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 
south central Florida near 26N80W, continuing into the south 
central Gulf of Mexico, and eventually into the SW corner of the 
Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from 28N75W to 23N82W. 
Scattered showers are 60 nm ahead of the front, and from 27N-31N
between 69W-73W. An upper level trough is in the eastern sections
of the Atlantic Ocean, along 30N30W to 12N44W to 10N59W.  There 
are two troughs noticeable at the surface, one from 16N37W to 
23N37W, and second trough from 25N35W to 29N31W. Scattered 
moderate convection is along and to the east of the troughs. To 
the north, a surface trough is also present from 29N41W to 26N50W 
with scattered moderate convection 180 nm behind the trough. 

The cold front will reach from near Bermuda to the central 
Bahamas on Wed afternoon. the front will stall and weaken along 
roughly 25N by Thu afternoon, and then dissipate Fri. Another cold
front is forecast to move off the NE Florida coast by late Fri 
and reach the NW Bahamas by Sat. 

$$
Torres