000 AXNT20 KNHC 311113 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 613 AM EST Tue Dec 31 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 02N, to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W to 02N30W, curving to 01N35W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 90 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 04W and 08W, within 60 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 20W and 23W, and from 60 nm to 210 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 25W and 35W. Precipitation has been active in parts of Brazil, since 31/0200 UTC, from 06S to the coast between 40W and 50W. Some of the areas of rain have moved into the coastal waters of Brazil, with time, now from 01N southward from 39W westward. GULF OF MEXICO... Large scale SW-to-W wind flow, from 250 mb to 500 mb to 700 mb, according to the latest GFS model, spans the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front passes through central Florida near 28N81.5W, continuing into the south central Gulf of Mexico. The front becomes stationary from the south central Gulf, to a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 21N95W. The boundary continues as a cold front from the 1012 mb low pressure center, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds, and areas of rain or drizzle, are to the northwest of the frontal boundary, and to the south of the cold front from 89W eastward. The current frontal boundary will stall from South Florida to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico later today. The low pressure center and accompanying front will move northward through Wednesday, and then start to dissipate in the northwest Gulf of Mexico into Thursday. A stronger cold front will move off the Texas coast on Thursday night. The stronger cold front should reach from the Florida Panhandle to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico by Friday afternoon, and push south and east of the Gulf of Mexico by late Saturday. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico in advance of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model, for 500 mb and for 700 mb, shows cyclonic wind flow in the western sections of the Caribbean Sea, from Jamaica westward, with an inverted trough. Comparatively drier air in subsidence covers the area that is from 08N in Venezuela to 20N between 60W and 70W, and from 10N to 23N between 70W and 80W. eastward, and in the Atlantic Ocean from 10N to 20N between 40W and 60W. Broad surface low pressure covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W in northern Colombia, to 06N79W to south of Panama, and then northwestward into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 10N southward between Colombia and 79W along the coast of Panama. Upper level SW wind flow is pushing the high level moisture from Costa Rica and Panama, to 20N near SE Cuba, from 66W westward. The current Gulf of Mexico frontal boundary will move into the Yucatan Channel later today and stall, before moving northward again tonight. High pressure, building to the north of the front from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the western Atlantic Ocean, will maintain fresh to occasionally strong trade winds off Colombia through the week. A stronger front will move through the Yucatan Channel into the northwest Caribbean Sea on Saturday. Long- period N swell, propagating through the Atlantic Ocean passages and the tropical Atlantic Ocean off the Leeward and Windward Islands, will diminish by Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N76W in the Atlantic Ocean, to central Florida near 28N81.5W, continuing into the south central Gulf of Mexico, and eventually into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the NW of the line that extends from Bermuda to 28N73W, to the northern coast of Cuba along 76W. An upper level trough is in the eastern sections of the Atlantic Ocean, along 32N31W 22N37W 14N41W 12N44W. A surface trough is along 31N30W 25N31W 22N34W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 20N to 24N between 30W and 37W. The current Atlantic Ocean-to-Gulf of Mexico frontal boundary will reach from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas on Wednesday afternoon. The front will stall and weaken along roughly 25N by Thursday afternoon, and then dissipate on Friday. A stronger cold front should move off the NE Florida coast by late Friday, and then reach the NW Bahamas by Saturday. $$ MT