000 AXNT20 KNHC 301702 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1202 PM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough crosses the Prime Meridian at 05N and continues to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W to 01N20W to 03N28W to near 00N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm north of the monsoon trough between 02W and 05W, and between 11W and 14W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends SW from near Apalachicola, Florida across the central Gulf of Mexico to the coast of Mexico near 19N96W. Recent buoy observations show fresh northerly winds behind the front across the NW Gulf, with strong winds likely found near the front over the west-central Gulf. A surface trough is analyzed ahead of the front over the eastern Gulf. Earlier satellite and lightning data showed scattered moderate convection east of the trough, but now mainly scattered showers prevail over the eastern offshore waters. Meanwhile, surface high pressure continues building into the NW Gulf and over eastern Mexico in the wake of the cold front. The cold front will stall from the Straits of Florida to weak low pressure near Tampico, Mexico by late Tue. The low and accompanying front will dissipate Wed and Thu as they lift northward over the western Gulf. Another cold front will move off the Texas coast Thu night and reach from near Tampa Bay to the Bay of Campeche by Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... GOES-16 water vapor imagery indicates deep-layer dry air dominates much of the Caribbean this morning with broad subsidence aloft. Limited shower activity is noted over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in association with a weak surface trough depicted in recent scatterometer data. Surface high pressure persists north of the region, and strong to locally near gale force winds are noted in scatterometer data near the coast of Colombia within the tight local pressure gradient. A 10 UTC Jason-3 altimeter pass shows seas are running 8-11 ft within these strong trades. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades prevail across much of the region with seas less than 8 ft. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong northeast to east winds over most of the central Caribbean. Winds will diminish slightly through late Tue as the high pressure shifts southeastward and weakens. Meanwhile, long-period north swell will propagate through the Atlantic passages and the tropical Atlantic waters off the Leeward and Windward Islands through mid-week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure near 29N63W maintains a surface ridge across much of the SW N Atlantic waters this morning. Fresh to strong S to SW flow is likely occurring off the northeast coast of Florida ahead of a cold front that is nearing the southeast U.S. coast. Over the central Atlantic, the tail end of a cold front extends into the forecast waters from 31N47W to 29N52W. Scatterometer data from earlier this morning showed fresh to strong SW winds within 240 nm east of the front. Farther east, a dissipating stationary front extends from 31N24W to 22N30W, while a surface trough is analyzed from 22N33W to 18N40W to 17N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of the trough west of 45W. Northerly swell remains across much of the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic waters, with seas to 11 ft east of 50W based on several recent altimeter passes. Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge extends across the northern waters roughly along 27N between 35W and 63W. High pressure over the SW N Atlantic waters will shift east of the area through Tue ahead of a cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast tonight. The front will continue to move southeastward through Tue, reaching from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida through mid week. The front will stall and weaken along roughly 22N through Thu night before dissipating Fri. Another cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast by late Fri. $$ Reinhart