000 AXNT20 KNHC 301148 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 648 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through 04N along the Prime Meridian, to 05N12W, and 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 01N30W, and to the Equator along 43W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 135 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ ITCZ, and to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, mostly between 06W and 25W, and elsewhere from 04N southward from 42W westward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 20N97W. A surface trough is about 200 nm to the east of the cold front, from 23N to 30N. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated is within 90 nm to the east of the surface trough from 23N to 27N. Surface high pressure has built into the westernmost sections of the Gulf of Mexico, from the Texas coast toward the cold front. Upper level SW wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico, on the eastern side of an upper level trough that still is inland in the central U.S.A. The current cold front will reach from southwest Florida to near Veracruz Mexico by late Monday. The front will stall from the Straits of Florida to a weak low pressure center that is forecast to be near Tampico Mexico, by late Tuesday. The low pressure center and accompanying front will dissipate on Wednesday and Thursday, as they move northward in the western Gulf of Mexico. A second and stronger cold front will move off the Texas coast Thursday night. The second cold front will reach from near Tampa Bay to the Bay of Campeche by Friday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model for 250 mb shows a trough from Jamaica to the northern coast of Colombia. Comparatively drier air in subsidence covers the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from 10N to 24N between 50W and 88W. The southwesternmost part of a shear line is along 17N between 60W and 65W. Rainshowers are possible, including near the shear line, in areas of scattered to broken low level clouds, from 14N northward from 78W eastward. Surface high pressure to the north of the area will support fresh to strong northeast to east winds in most of the central Caribbean Sea. These winds will diminish slightly through late Tuesday, as the high pressure shifts southeastward and weakens. Long-period north swell will propagate through the Atlantic Ocean passages, and the tropical Atlantic Ocean, off the Leeward and Windward Islands, through the middle of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A central Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is supporting a cold front that passes through 32N47W 30N54W, beyond 32N63W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm to the southeast of the cold front from 29N northward. An eastern Atlantic Ocean stationary front passes through 32N24W to 28N27W and 23N29W. A surface trough continues from 23N29W, to 18N37W, and 16N45W. A shear line continues from 16N45W, to 18N59W, and 17N65W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the north of the shear line between 45W and 47W, and within 45 nm on either side of the shear line between 50W and 53W. High pressure across the forecast waters will shift to the east of the area through Tuesday. The high pressure will be in advance of a cold front, that will move off the northeast Florida coast tonight. The front will continue to move southeastward through Tuesday. The front will reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida through the middle of the week. The front will stall and weaken along 22N on Thursday night, and then dissipate on Friday. Another front will move off the northeast Florida coast by late Friday. $$ MT