000 AXNT20 KNHC 292333 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 633 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 04N26W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N- 05N between 07W-15W, and from 01N-04N between 30W-39W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 29/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from SW Louisiana near 30N93W to N of Tampico Mexico near 23N98W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers along the coast of Louisiana. Scattered moderate convection is also over the NE Gulf of Mexico from 27N-31N between 84W-87W. 25 kt northerly winds are N of the front. The remainder of the Gulf has 10-15 kt southerly flow. In the upper levels, a large trough is over the central USA with axis along 96W with broken to overcast high clouds. A large ridge is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along 80W and strong subsidence. The cold front will reach from from near Apalachicola, Florida to near Veracruz Mexico by early Mon, from near Tampa, Florida to 22N90W and stationary to near 21N97W by early Mon evening and from near Naples to along the northern Yucatan Peninsula then stationary to near 21N97W early Tue. The front will become stationary from along northwest Cuba to near 21N93W and to weak low pressure near 22N97W by late Tue night. The low is forecast to lift northward along the coast of Mexico Wed and Wed night and along the Texas coast on Thu and Thu night while it dissipates. Strong southerly winds will develop over much of the western and central Gulf on Thu ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will move off the Texas and southwest Louisiana coast late Thu afternoon or early Thu evening, reach from near western Florida panhandle to 25N92W and to the SW Gulf early Fri and from near Apalachicola, Florida to 25N89W and to the eastern Bay of Campeche late Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow in behind this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Isolated moderate convection is over Costa Rica, Panama, and N Colombia. The remainder of the Caribbean Sea has mostly fair weather. Tradewinds are 10-20 kt with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. In the upper levels a ridge is over the W Caribbean and Central America. Zonal flow is over the E Caribbean. Strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean. Surface high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong northeast to east winds over most of the central Caribbean through tonight. These winds will diminish slightly through Tue as the high pressure shifts southeastward and weakens. Meanwhile, long-period north swell will propagate through the Atlantic passages and the tropical Atlantic waters off the Leeward and Windward Islands through mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 31N70W. A 1022 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 34N31W. A stationary front is over the E Atlantic from 31N22W to 21N31W. A dissipating stationary front continues to 17N40W to 17N55W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level trough is over the E Atlantic N of 25N between 25W-60W supporting the surface front. High pressure across the forecast waters will shift east of the area through Tue ahead of a cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast Mon night. The front will continue to move southeastward through Tue, reaching from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early Wed before stalling and weakening along roughly 22N through Thu night and dissipate Fri. $$ Formosa