000 AXNT20 KNHC 290553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1253 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 05N15W. The ITCZ extends from 05N15W to 04N29W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 14W-30W. GULF OF MEXICO... Deep layer ridging is seen across most of the Gulf. Meanwhile, an upper level trough over the central U.S. is sliding eastward. This is helping a cold front sweep across the southern Plains and is beginning to approach the Gulf coast. In response to this trough and front, the latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong southerly winds in the NW Gulf. Light to gentle winds are seen elsewhere. Moist southerly flow over the northwest Gulf will continue through early Sunday. The cold front will move into the far NW Gulf by Sunday afternoon, reach from near Apalachicola, Florida to near Veracruz Mexico by early Monday, from near Tampa, Florida to 22N90W and stationary to near 21N97W by early Monday evening and from near Naples to along the northern Yucatan Peninsula then stationary to near 21N97W early Tuesday. The front will become stationary from along northwest Cuba to near 21N93W and to weak low pressure near 22N97W by late Tuesday night. The low is forecast to lift northward along the coast of Mexico Wednesday and Wednesday night and along the Texas coast on Thursday and Thursday night while it dissipates. CARIBBEAN SEA... Deep layer ridging also continues to cover the Caribbean, which is inhibiting deep convection. Most of the basin remains quiet with isolated showers moving across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong winds along the northern coast of Colombia, with fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean. Moderate trades are seen across the rest of the basin. High pressure north of the area will allow for fresh to strong northeast to east winds over most of the central Caribbean through Sunday night. These winds will diminish slightly early next week as the high pressure shifts southeastward and weakens. Meanwhile, long-period north swell will propagate through the Atlantic passages and the tropical Atlantic waters off the Leeward and Windward Islands through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is pushing across the central and eastern Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front is moving eastward across the eastern Atlantic. This boundary enters the forecast waters near 31N27W and extends southwest to 21N34W to 18N56W. A shear line continues from 18N56W to 20N66W to 22N75W. Scattered showers are noted across the cold front from 23N-31N between 25W-31W. Light showers are seen across the rest of the boundary and shear line. In fact, some showers at the tail end of this shear line are moving across the Bahamas and south Florida. High pressure dominates the rest of the basin anchored by two 1024 mb highs, one near 30N51W and the other near 30N60W. To the north of the shear line and the southern half of the cold front, the latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong NE winds are seen. North of 24N, fresh to strong NW winds are behind the cold front. Additionally, fresh southerly winds are ahead of the cold front N of 26N. High pressure ridging from Bermuda to the Carolinas will shift southeast through early next week ahead of a cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast Monday night. The front will continue to move southeastward through Tuesday, and extend from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early Wednesday and weaken as it becomes stationary over the far southern waters on Thursday. $$ AKR