078 AXNT20 KNHC 282318 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 618 PM EST Sat Dec 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 03N34W to N Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-06N between 11W-16W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-05N between 25W-29W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is inland over central Texas moving SE. 15-25 kt S flow is over the W Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are along the Texas coast. A 1024 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N69W. A ridge axis extends W from the high to SE Louisiana along 30N. 10-15 kt SE return flow is over the E Gulf. Moistly fair weather is over the E Gulf. In the upper levels, a large trough is over the Midwest USA with axis along 103W with broken to overcast high clouds. A large ridge is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along 86W and strong subsidence. The cold front will move into the far NW Gulf by Sun afternoon, reach from near Apalachicola, Florida to near Veracruz Mexico by early Mon, from near Tampa, Florida to 22N90W and stationary to near 21N97W by early Mon evening and from near Naples to along the northern Yucatan Peninsula then stationary to near 21N97W early Tue. The front will become stationary from along northwest Cuba to near 21N93W and to weak low pressure near 22N97W by late Tue night. The low is forecast to lift northward along the coast of Mexico Wed and Wed night and along the Texas coast on Thu and Thu night while it dissipates. CARIBBEAN SEA... Isolated moderate convection is over E Panama and N Colombia. Similar convection is along the coast of Nicaragua from 12N-14N between 81W-83W. The remainder of the Caribbean Sea has mostly fair weather. Tradewinds are 10-20 kt with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. In the upper levels a ridge is over the W Caribbean and Central America. Zonal flow is over the E Caribbean. Strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean. High pressure north of the area will allow for fresh to strong northeast to east winds over most of the central Caribbean through Sun night. These winds will diminish slightly early next week as the high pressure shifts southeastward and weakens. Meanwhile, long-period north swell will propagate through the Atlantic passages and the tropical Atlantic waters off the Leeward and Windward Islands through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 31N69W. A 1023 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 31N56W. A cold front is over the E Atlantic from 31N29W to 21N26W to 19N50W 19N55W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm E of the front N of 21N. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level trough is over the E Atlantic N of 15N between 25W-60W supporting the surface front. Surface high pressure ridging over the W Atlantic will shift southeast through early next week ahead of a cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast Mon night. The front will continue to move southeastward through Tue, and extend from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early Wed and become stationary over the far southern waters and weaken on Thu. $$ Formosa