000 AXNT20 KNHC 281145 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 645 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1120 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N11W to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W to 03N34W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the ITCZ between 14W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A trough analyzed from 21N92W to 29N90W continues to drift west across the central Gulf. Isolated showers are along this feature. Another trough is noted in the Yucatan Passage, analyzed from 21N85W to 24N84W. Scattered showers are also moving across the SE Gulf. Upper level ridging covers most of the Gulf which is inhibiting deep convection. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict fresh to strong easterly winds in the NE Gulf and gentle to moderate easterly winds in the central and southern Gulf. In the western Gulf, gentle to moderate southeast winds are observed. Moist southerly flow will increase slightly over the northwest Gulf today between high pressure over the western Atlantic and a cold front moving across the southern Plains toward the Texas coast. The front will move into the far northwest Gulf by Sunday afternoon, reaching from Florida Big Bend area to near Veracruz Mexico by early Monday, before stalling from the Straits of Florida to Bay of Campeche into Tuesday. Low pressure may form along the front over the western Gulf by late Tuesday, but should dissipate through Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level ridging covers the Caribbean, bringing subsidence to the area. Most of the Caribbean remains quiet. However, scattered moderate convection continues across the SW Caribbean, S of 11N between 76W- 84W. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean with fresh ENE winds in the SW Caribbean. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are seen throughout the rest of the basin. High pressure north of the area will allow for fresh to strong northeast to east winds over most of the central Caribbean through Sunday night. These winds will diminish slightly early next week as the high pressure shifts southeastward and weakens. Meanwhile, long-period north swell will propagate through the Atlantic passages and the tropical Atlantic waters off the Leeward and Windward Islands Saturday through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast waters in the central Atlantic near 31N33 and stretches westward to 2146 to 21N60W to 23N73W. A reinforcing cold front follows, entering the waters near 31N35W to 24N42W to 23N54W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen along and ahead of the primary cold front from 19N-31N between 30W-42W. Light showers are seen along the reinforcing cold front. High pressure covers the rest of the central and western Atlantic anchored by a 1027 mb high near 32N64W. In the western Atlantic, showers are moving across the northern Bahamas into south Florida. The latest scatterometer data depicts northerly near gale winds south of the primary cold front from 22N-24N between 56W- 75W. Strong to near gale southerly winds are also noted ahead of the reinforcing cold front with strong northerly winds behind this front, between 37W- 53W. A surface ridge from Bermuda to the Carolinas will shift southeast through early next week ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Monday night. The front continue to move southeast through Tuesday, reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early Wednesday, then stalling along roughly 24N through late Wednesday. $$ AKR