000 AXNT20 KNHC 280523 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1223 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to 03N32W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 15W-35W. There are isolated showers off the Brazil coast near the ITCZ in addition to showers moving off the Liberia coast just south of the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1013 mb low is located in the central Gulf near 25N89W with a trough extending along the low from 21N-27N. Isolated showers are along this feature. Scattered showers are also moving across the SE Gulf. Upper level ridging covers most of the Gulf which is inhibiting deep convection. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong easterly winds in the NE Gulf and gentle to moderate easterly winds in the southern Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds in the western Gulf are beginning to turn ESE ahead of an incoming upper level trough. The trough and low will slowly move to the western Gulf through late tonight while dissipating. Fresh to strong east winds over the eastern Gulf will become mainly east to southeast moderate to fresh winds on Saturday, then southeast moderate winds over the eastern Gulf Saturday night. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will set up over the northwest Gulf on Saturday in advance of a cold front that is expected to move over NW Gulf Saturday night into Sunday. Fresh to strong north winds will follow the front as it reaches from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico early on Monday and from near Punta Gorda, Florida to the northwest part of the Yucatan Peninsula and eastern Bay of Campeche Monday night. The front will begin to weaken as it reaches from northwestern Cuba to the northeast part of the Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday afternoon and exit the area Tuesday evening. High pressure will build eastward over the northern Gulf in the wake of the front as a trough and low pressure develops along the coast of Mexico. The resultant tight gradient is expected to increase the east winds to fresh to strong speeds over the far western Gulf on Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level ridging covers the Caribbean, bringing subsidence to the area. Most of the Caribbean remains quiet. However, isolated convection is noted 70 nm SE of Jamaica. Scattered moderate convection is also seen in the SW Caribbean, S of 11N between 76W- 84W. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean with fresh ENE winds in the SW Caribbean. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are seen throughout the rest of the basin. High pressure north of the area will allow for fresh to strong northeast to east winds over most of the central Caribbean through Sunday night. These winds will diminish slightly early next week as the high pressure shifts southeastward and weakens. Meanwhile, long-period north swell will propagate through the Atlantic passages and the tropical Atlantic waters off the Leeward and Windward Islands Saturday through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1004 mb low is analyzed in the central Atlantic near 30N36W. A cold front extends along the low, entering the waters near 31N35W and stretches westward to 23N44W to 21N61W. The tail-end of the front is dissipating, from 21N61W to 23N70W. A reinforcing cold front follows, entering the waters near 31N37W to 25N47W to 25N61W. The tail-end of this boundary is also dissipating from 25N61W to 27N68W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along and ahead of the primary cold front from 20N-31N between 31W-45W. Light showers are seen along the reinforcing cold front. High pressure covers the rest of the central and western Atlantic anchored by a 1028 mb high near 35N63W. The latest scatterometer data depicts northerly near gale winds south of the primary cold front from 22N-24N between 56W-75W. Strong to near gale southerly winds are also noted ahead of the reinforcing cold front with strong northerly winds behind this front, between 37W-53W. High pressure over the area will shift southeastward through early next week while weakening. This will weaken the tight gradient over the central waters, with the present fresh to strong east winds there diminishing to mainly moderate speeds late Monday. Fresh to strong south to southwest winds will develop over the far northwest waters on Monday as a cold front approaches the southeastern U.S. coast. The front will move off that coast on Monday afternoon, reach from near 31N78W to Vero Beach, Florida late Monday night, from near 31N74W to the NW Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida Tuesday afternoon and from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Wednesday afternoon into early evening. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds are expected behind the front over the far northern waters. $$ AKR