000 AXNT20 KNHC 272330 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 630 PM EST Fri Dec 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 04N15W. The ITCZ extends from 04N15W to 04N40W to the coast of South America near 00N49W. Isolated moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 01N-05N between 15W-30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is over the central Gulf of Mexico from 27N89W to an embedded 1013 mb low near 25N89W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 20N89W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. A few showers are also noted over the NW coast of Florida. Fresh E winds prevail across the eastern half of the basin. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong E winds from 25N-30N between 83W-88W. Light to gentle winds prevail west of 90W. Expect patchy dense fog over the NW Gulf Sat morning. The Gulf trough will slowly move to the western Gulf through late tonight while dissipating. Fresh to strong east winds over the eastern Gulf north of 25N will become mainly east to southeast moderate to fresh winds on Sat, then southeast moderate winds over the eastern Gulf Sat night. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will set up over the northwest Gulf on Sat in advance of a cold front that is expected to move over NW Gulf Sat night into Sun. Fresh to strong north winds will follow the front as it reaches from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico early on Mon and from near Punta Gorda, Florida to the northwest part of the Yucatan Peninsula and eastern Bay of Campeche Mon night. The front will begin to weaken as it reaches from northwestern Cuba to the northeast part of the Yucatan Peninsula by Tue afternoon and exit the area Tue evening. High pressure will build eastward over the northern Gulf in the wake of the front as a trough and low pressure develops along the coast of Mexico. The resultant tight gradient is expected to increase the east winds to fresh to strong speeds over the far western Gulf on Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from the northern Leeward Islands near 18N62W to 15N71W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough axis including the northern Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is inland over Costa Rica, Panama, and N Colombia. Fair weather prevails elsewhere. ASCAT data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin generally south of 16N, and moderate to fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere north of 16N, mainly gentle winds are over the area, except for south of the Dominican Republic, where fresh NE winds prevail. High pressure building north of the area will support increasing winds and seas over much of the south central Caribbean through Sun. The winds will diminish slightly early next week as the high pressure shifts eastward. Meanwhile, long- period north swell will propagate through the Atlantic passages and the tropical Atlantic waters off the Leeward and Windward Islands Sat through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 33N71W. A cold front is over the E Atlantic from 31N34W to an embedded 1006 mb low near 28N40W to 23N50W to 22N60W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front. A reinforcing cold front is further W from 31N41W to 26N50W to 28N67W. Broken cold air stratocumulus clouds are N of this front. ASCAT shows gale force winds north of 31N between 43W-50W. High pressure over the western Atlantic will begin to shift southeastward tonight through early next while weakening. This will weaken the tight gradient over the central waters, with the present fresh to strong east winds there diminishing to mainly moderate speeds late Mon. Fresh to strong south to southwest winds will develop over the far northwest waters on Mon as a cold front approaches the southeastern U.S. coast. The front will move off that coast on Mon afternoon, reach from near 31N78W to Vero Beach, Florida late Mon night, from near 31N74W to the NW Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida Tue afternoon and from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Wed afternoon into early evening. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds are expected behind the front over the far northern waters. $$ Formosa