000 AXNT20 KNHC 271700 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1200 PM EST Fri Dec 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 05N18W. The ITCZ extends from 05N18W to 04N40W to 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ between 18W-43W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is over the central Gulf of Mexico along 89W from 23N-27N. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. A few showers are also noted near the west coast of central Florida and near the coast of SE Louisiana. Moist and relatively warm east flow is supporting patchy fog over the north central and northwest Gulf. Fresh E winds prevail across the eastern half of the basin. The latest ASCAT pass from around 27/1500 UTC shows strong E winds from 26N-28N between 84W-87W. Light to gentle winds prevail west of 90W. Fresh easterly winds persist over the eastern Gulf between a trough over the south central Gulf and high pressure over the western Atlantic. The trough will drift into the western Gulf later today then dissipate tonight. Fresh to occasional strong southerly return flow will set up over the northwest Gulf Sat, ahead of a cold front expected to enter the northwest Gulf Sat night and Sun. Fresh to strong wind will follow the front as it reaches from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico Mon, before stalling from the Straits of Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from the northern Leeward Islands near 18N63W to 15N71W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough axis, mainly E of 67W, including over the northern Leeward Islands. The 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended 27/1200 UTC...according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.65 inches in St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Fair weather prevails elsewhere. ASCAT data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin generally south of 16N, and moderate to fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere north of 16N, mainly gentle winds are over the area, except for south of the Dominican Republic, where fresh NE winds prevail. High pressure building north of the area will support increasing winds and seas over much of the south central Caribbean late today through Sun. The winds will diminish slightly early next week as the high pressure shifts eastward. Meanwhile northerly swell will move into Atlantic passages and the tropical Atlantic waters off the Leeward and Windward Islands Sat through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1009 mb low is near 28N43W. A cold front extends from the low to 25N50W to 24N57W. A shear line continues from 24N57W to 24N73W to 25N76W. Strong NE winds extend from the shear line to 28N. Strong N winds are north of the cold front. A warm front extends from the low to 30N40W, with a cold front continuing northeastward from 30N40W to 31N34W to the Azores. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is within the area bounded by the points 32N40W to 25N45W to 32N30W to 32N40W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere within the area bounded by 32N40W to 23N49W to 25N35W to 32N29W to 32N40W. Another cold front enters the waters near 32N42W and extends to 29N53W to 29N61W to 31N65W. Near gale NW winds are north of the front to 31N, east of 55W. ASCAT shows gale force winds north of 31N between 44W-51W. A surface trough extends from the northern Leeward Islands near 18N63W to 22N55W. Scattered moderate convection is from 19N-22N between 54W-58W. Scattered showers are elsewhere along the trough axis. A surface ridge axis extends from the Canary Islands to 19N40W to 16N60W, leading to fair weather and gentle winds in that area. High pressure building over the western Atlantic will support fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 27N west of 60W through Sat night. The high pressure will shift east Sun into Mon, allowing these winds to diminish. Winds off northeast Florida will increase and veer to more south to southwest Sun into Mon ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Florida coast by late Mon. The front will reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Tue. $$ Hagen