000 AXNT20 KNHC 262335 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 635 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N38W to 29N40W to 28N44W. Gale force winds are from 30.5N to beyond 31N between 36W and 37.5W with seas 15 to 19 FT in NW to W SWELL. The gale is expected to end at 27/0600 UTC tonight. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N17W. The ITCZ extends from 07N17W to 04N23W to 03N35W to the coast of N Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N-05N between 29W-35W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-06N between 35W-49W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends across the central Gulf of Mexico from 28N90W to 24N91W to the NE Yucatan Peninsula near 21N87W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. Elsewhere, isolated showers are over the SE Gulf of Mexico and S Florida. Fresh E winds are over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Light to gentle winds cover the western Gulf. Locally dense fog is expected within 30 nm of the mouth of the Mississippi between midnight tonight and mid morning Fri. A weak surface trough will drift west across the central and western Gulf through Fri. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are expected east of the trough. Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will set up over the NW Gulf on Sat ahead of a cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Sat night into Sun. Then, fresh to strong N winds will follow the front, which will extend from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico on Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from 19N64W to E Puerto Rico near 18N66W to 17N69W, and dissipating stationary to 15N74W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 17N-19N between 63W-66W, including the Virgin Islands. Scattered moderate showers are elsewhere within 45 nm either side of the front. Light and variable winds will prevail over the western Caribbean through Fri night. Winds and seas will increase over the central Caribbean Fri through Sun as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the central Atlantic. A 1023 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 34N72W. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N38W to 29N40W to 28N44W. A stationary front continues to a triple point near 27N59W. A cold front extends S from the triple point to 19N64W to E Puerto Rico near 18N66W. An occluded front extends from the triple point to 26N62W to a 1010 mb low near 24N63W. A surface trough extends S from this low to 21N68W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the stationary front. High pressure building over the western Atlantic will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across the southern waters through Sat night. Fresh to strong SE to S winds are expected east of Florida Sat night through Sun night. A cold front will push E from Florida Mon night. $$ Formosa