000 AXNT20 KNHC 261717 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1216 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... A 1003 mb surface low is centered near 34N38W. A cold front extends from the low to 29N43W to 28N47W to 27N54W. The latest ASCAT pass from near 26/1200 UTC shows gale-force S to SW winds north of 28.5N and within 150 nm ahead of the front. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in roughly the same area as the gale force winds. Seas in the area are 12-18 ft. The front and gales will continue moving E today north of 29N. The Gale Warning for the area south of 32N is expected to end around 27/0000 UTC tonight. Until then, SW gales are expected from 29N-32N between 35W-40W this afternoon and early evening. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from the west coast of Africa near 07N12W to 04N18W to 04N38W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N-05N between 30W-44W, and from 04N-06N between 44W-49W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends across the central Gulf of Mexico from 29N92W to 25N90W to the Yucatan Channel near 21N86W. Isolated showers are possible near the trough. Elsewhere, isolated showers are in the SE Gulf of Mexico between Key West and western Cuba. Fresh E winds are over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Light or gentle winds cover the western Gulf. The weak surface trough will drift west across the central and western Gulf through Fri. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are expected east of the trough. Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will set up over the NW Gulf on Sat ahead of a cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Sat night into Sun. Then, fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front, that will extend from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico on Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from 20N63W to Puerto Rico near 18N67W to 17N71W, and stationary to 16N73W. Scattered moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is seen from 18N-20N between 61W-65W, including over portions of the Virgin Islands. Puerto Rico radar and satellite imagery indicate that scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms prevail elsewhere within 45 nm either side of the front, including over Puerto Rico and portions of the Dominican Republic. Expect enhanced rains to continue into early this evening for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the northern Leeward Islands. In the NW Caribbean, a surface trough extends from the Yucatan Channel near 22N86.5W to 19N85W, with isolated showers near the trough. Mid-upper level ridging prevails over the NW Caribbean, with dry air seen on GOES-16 water vapor channels over Cuba and the Windward Passage. In the far SW Caribbean, scattered moderate convection is seen south of 11N and west of 80W, including over the Caribbean coast of western Panama. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate winds across most of the eastern and central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate over the northwest Caribbean. Gentle to moderate northerly winds will continue over the western Caribbean through Fri night. Winds and seas will increase in the central Caribbean on Fri as high pressure builds north of area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the central Atlantic. An occluded 1008 mb low is near 25N63W, with a surface trough extending from the low to the SE Bahamas, and an occluded front extending from the low to a triple point near 27N59.5W. A cold front extends from the triple point to 20N63W to Puerto Rico. A stationary front extends from the triple point to 27N54W. These surface features are being supported by a mid-upper level trough that is present from 20N-32N between 52W-65W. Scattered moderate convection is seen inside the area bounded by 31N45W to 18N55W to 18N65W to 31N56W to 31N45W. The latest ASCAT pass shows that strong NE winds prevail from 26N-30N between 56W-80W. Surface ridging and quiet weather generally prevail over the open Atlantic north of 10N and southeast of a line from 30N26W to 25N40W to 17N60W. High pressure building over the western Atlantic will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across southern waters through Sat. The E-W strip of fresh to strong winds that currently prevails from 26N-30N between 56W-80W will move southward to cover the area from 22N-26N between 60W-80W on Friday, and even farther south on Saturday before weakening. Fresh southerly winds are then expected to develop east of northern Florida Sat night through Sun night. Elsewhere, a push of strong NW to N winds is expected on Friday for the area from 25N-32N between 40W-65W. Seas of 12-15 ft will affect waters north of 25N between 35W-57W Friday afternoon into early Saturday. $$ Hagen