000 AXNT20 KNHC 261046 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 546 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... A 1003 mb surface low is centered near 33N42W. A cold front extends from the low to 28N52W, then becomes stationary to 27N61W. Gale-force winds are occurring in the eastern semicircle of the low, mainly north of 28N, with seas ranging between 10-17 ft. The low is expected to move east through tonight, and the gale winds will follow the low/front. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Africa near 07N12W to 06N14W. The ITCZ extends from 06N14W to 01N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm either side of the ITCZ between 20W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 mb surface high is over the Carolinas extending southwest across the basin. Mid-to-upper level ridging covers the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is analyzed from 29N90W to 25N89W, with little to no precipitation noted. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate E winds east of the surface trough, while gentle anticyclonic winds prevail west of the trough. The surface ridge will reside N of the Gulf through Fri night. The surface trough will drift W across the central and western Gulf tonight through Fri. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf Sat night and Sun, and extend from northern Florida to southern Mexico on Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from 18N69W to 14N75W. Scattered showers are along the front. In the far SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered showers from 12N south between 80W-82W, including over western Panama and far SE Costa Rica. The latest ASCAT pass depicts gentle to moderate winds across the basin. The stationary front will dissipate today. Gentle to moderate northerly winds will prevail over the western Caribbean through Fri night. Winds and seas will increase in the central Caribbean on Fri as high pressure builds north of area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the central Atlantic. A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 23N79W to 24N66W. A 1008 mb occluded low is centered near 26N64W. The occluded front extends from the low to 27N75W. A cold front extends from that point to 21N62W to 19N68W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the cold front affecting Puerto Rico and adjacent waters at this time. The eastern portion of this low/frontal system is discussed in the Special Features section above. Farther E, a 1029 mb surface high is near 42N07W, with a surface ridge axis extending west-southwestward from the high to the Lesser Antilles. High pressure building over the western Atlantic will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across southern waters through Sat. Fresh southerly winds are expected east of Florida Sat night through Sun night. $$ ERA