892 AXNT20 KNHC 260529 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1229 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... A 1005 mb surface low is centered near 32N46W. A cold front extends from the low to a 1008 mb surface low near 27N62W then to 20N69W. Gale-force winds are occurring in the eastern semicircle of the first low, mainly north of 29N, with seas ranging between 12-14 ft. Gale winds will continue in the eastern and southern quadrants of the low and east of the cold front, north of 28N, as the system moves eastward during the next 24 hours. Winds will decrease to below gale force south of 32N by late Thursday afternoon. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Africa near 07N12W to 06N13W. The ITCZ extends from 06N13W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm either side of the ITCZ between 22W-47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 mb surface high is over the Carolinas extending southwest across the basin. Mid-upper level ridging covers the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is analyzed from 28N89W to 24N87W, with little to no precipitation noted. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate E winds east of the surface trough. Gentle anticyclonic winds prevail west of the surface trough. The surface ridge will reside N of the Gulf through Fri night. The surface trough will drift W across the central and western Gulf tonight through Fri. A cold front entering the NW Gulf Sat night and Sun will usher in moderate fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas. A developing surface trough will generate strong winds over the NW Gulf on Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from Haiti near 18N72W to 16N76W. Scattered showers are along the front. In the far SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered showers from 12N south between 75W-82W, including over western Panama and far SE Costa Rica. The latest ASCAT pass depicts gentle to moderate winds across the basin. The stationary front will dissipate tonight. Fresh N winds are expected along the coast of Nicaragua tonight. Winds and seas will diminish across the central Caribbean Thu, then increase again on Fri as high pressure builds N of area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the central Atlantic. A 1007 mb surface low is centered near 25N67W. A surface trough extends westward from the low to Northern Bahamas, with little to no shower activity. An occluded front extends from this low to a 1008 mb low near 27N62W. This second low is described above in the Special Features section. Farther E, a 1027 mb surface high is near 36N18W, with a surface ridge axis extending west- southwestward from the high to the Lesser Antilles. The low pressure system well N of Puerto Rico will move to the E of the forecast waters Thu. The pressure gradient between the low and high pres building over the western Atlc will support fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly S of 28N through Sat. $$ ERA