000 AXNT20 KNHC 252356 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 656 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... A 1005 mb low is near 30N52W, with a cold front extending SW from the low to a second low near 25N63W. Gale force winds are occurring in the eastern semicircle of the first low, north of 29N. Gales will continue in the eastern and southern quadrants of the low, and east of the cold front, north of 28N, as the system moves eastward and then east-northeastward during the next 24 hours. Gales are forecast for the area north of 28N between 40W-53W this afternoon and evening. Thursday morning, gales are expected north of 29N between 35W-43W. Winds will decrease to below gale force, south of 32N, by late Thursday afternoon. Seas of 10-14 ft will develop this afternoon, with 12-16 ft expected by this evening. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Africa near the Sierra Leone/Liberia border near 06N11W to 05N15W. The ITCZ extends from 05N15W to 03N35W to the coast of NE Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 100 nm either side of the ITCZ between 25W-32W. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of the ITCZ between 40W-46W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 mb surface high is over the Carolinas extending south west across the Gulf of Mexico. Mid-upper level ridging covers the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is analyzed from 28N89W to 19N84W, with little to no precipitation noted. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate E winds east of the surface trough. Gentle anticyclonic winds prevail west of the surface trough. A ridge will reside N of the Gulf through Fri night. A weak surface trough will drift W across the central and western Gulf tonight through Fri. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are expected on the E side of the trough. A cold front entering the NW Gulf Sat night and Sun will usher in moderate fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas. A developing surface trough will generate strong winds over the NW Gulf Mon and MOn night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from Haiti near 18N73W to 15N75W. Isolated showers are along the front. In the far SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered moderate convection from 12N south between 75W-82W, including over western Panama and far SE Costa Rica. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate to fresh south winds in the SW Caribbean from 15N south between 77W-83W, but these winds should decrease to fresh this evening. Gentle winds currently prevail across the central Caribbean between 70W and the front. Fresh to strong N winds are seen between the front and the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. A nearly stationary front extending from Haiti to SE of Jamaica near 16N76W will dissipate tonight. Fresh N winds are expected along the coast of Nicaragua tonight. Winds and seas will diminish across the central Caribbean Thu, then increase again on Fri as high pressure builds N of area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the central Atlantic. A 1004 mb surface low is centered near 28N66W. A surface trough extends westward from the low to Northern Bahamas, with little to no shower activity noted along the trough. An occluded front extends from the low to a triple point near 25N63W. A cold front extends from 25N63W to 19N70W. The surface low and front are being supported by a strong mid-upper level low. Ahead of the cold front, numerous moderate with embedded scattered strong convection is seen 180 nm southeast of a line from 19N66W to 25N59W. These strong thunderstorms are likely producing wind gusts to gale force. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within the area north of 24N between 54W-63W. Farther E, a 1025 mb surface high is near 36N18W, with a surface ridge axis extending west-southwestward from the high to the Lesser Antilles. An weakening Atlantic cold front extends from 30N15W to 25N20W. Scattered showers are seen over water from 25N- 32N between 11W-17W. A low pressure system well N of Puerto Rico near 28N66W will move to the E of the forecast waters Thu. The pressure gradient between the low and high pres building over the western Atlc will support fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly S of 28N through Sat. $$ MMTorres