000 AXNT20 KNHC 250544 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1244 AM EST Wed Dec 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...WESTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... A 1003 mb surface low is centered near 29N72W. An occluded front extends from the low to a triple point near 31N70W. A cold front extends from 31N70W to 24N70W to 20N74W. A warm front extends from 31N70W to 27N70W. Latest scatterometer data depicts strong to gale force winds north of 30N and west of 74W. Seas in this area will range between 10-14 ft. Another area of gale force winds is expected from 29N-31N between 66W-68W, with seas ranging between 8-10 ft. Winds are expected to diminish to near gale force by this 12Z today. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details. ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... A 1008 mb low is forecast to be over the Atlantic near 31N52W on Wed 25/1200 UTC. Gale-force winds are forecast to develop by 12Z today from 29N-30N between 53W-55W. Seas in this area will range between 10-12 ft. The low will move eastward, bringing gales north of 28N between 36W-48W tonight into early Thu. Seas will range from 10-14 ft, and as high as 12-16 ft Wed night. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N12W to 05N15W. The ITCZ extends from 05N15W to the coast of NE Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 80 nm along the ITCZ between 20W-42W. GULF OF MEXICO... Deep layered ridging covers the western Gulf, leading to quiet weather and relatively weak wind speeds. A complex 1003 mb low pressure over the western Atlantic near 30N72W is keeping fresh to locally strong NW winds over the eastern Gulf. The surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through Wed. A weak surface trough will drift westward across the central and western Gulf Wed through Fri, with fresh E to SE winds on the E side of the trough. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from the Windward Passage to 17N78W to 12N80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the front. Similar convection is in the far SW Caribbean, south of 12N between 80W-83W. ASCAT data show fresh NW to N winds behind the front, while fresh ESE trades prevail over the eastern and central Caribbean. The front will dissipate as it drifts eastward Wed and Wed night. Fresh to strong N winds are expected west of the front near the coast of Nicaragua through Wed. Winds and seas will diminish across the central Caribbean Wed and Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warnings currently in effect. To the east of the west Atlantic cold front described in the section above, scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted within 350 nm east of the cold front, mainly north of 24N. To the east, a 1022 mb surface high is over the central Atlantic near 28N42W. A cold front enters the eastern Atlantic area near 31N21W to 21N32W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. The cold front will slowly weaken as it continues E to extend from 23N65W to the eastern tip of Hispaniola Wed evening. A complex low pressure system will shift E across the northern waters through Wed night, with NE gales expected E of NE Florida tonight, and NE of the Bahamas on Wed. Fresh NE to E winds are expected elsewhere across the region Thu through Fri night. $$ ERA