000 AXNT20 KNHC 231824 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 124 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WINDS... A surface 1008 mb low pressure centered near 31N80W with a cold front extending southward in the western Atlantic will enhance strong to gale force SE winds ahead of the front, and sea heights range from 12 to 14 feet, N of 28N W of 75W. Gale-force wind conditions are forecast to continue for the next 48 hours. For more details, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland for the 12 UTC analysis. The ITCZ extends offshore from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 03N29W to 04N49W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 01N-04N between 35W-45W and isolated showers elsewhere. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level low centered near 29N86W in the northern Gulf coast is moving east to southeast today before moving across northern FL and the western Atlantic tonight. A 1008 mb low pressure near 31N80W extends a cold front south across FL into the eastern Gulf to Cuba near 23N82W. ASCAT data shows fresh to strong W to NW winds in the northern Gulf and west of 83W. Light to moderate winds prevail in the western Gulf coast. Drier air spans most of the basin with a 1023 mb high pressure centered near 21N96W with no significant convection in place. A cold front from the SW Florida peninsula to W Cuba will move east of the Gulf later today. High pressure ridging that builds in across the area on Tue will be confined to mainly the northern Gulf waters Wed through Fri night as a weak surface trough moves westward over the central Gulf. Fresh to strong NW winds in the N Gulf will gradually diminish by Tue morning, leaving tranquil conditions across the Gulf from Tue afternoon through Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from NW Cuba across Isla de la Juventud to Belize near 16N88W. A surface trough is also seen ahead of the front from 15N87W to 21N81W. ASCAT data suggest moderate to fresh north to northwest winds behind in the NW Caribbean behind the boundary with lighter southerly winds ahead of it and in the central Caribbean fresh to strong north of Colombia from 13N south between 72W-75W. Scattered showers are present along the boundary. In the SW Caribbean, Pacific monsoon trough extends from western Colombia and across Panama and Costa Rica. Scattered moderate convection is been enhance by this feature from 12N south and west of 75W. The stationary front will reach from E Cuba to near the Nicaragua- Costa Rica border early Tue, become stationary and weaken from the Windward Passage to Providencia Island through Wed, and dissipate by late Wed night. Fresh to strong NW to N winds will follow the front. The Bermuda High will weaken and shift eastward Wed through Fri allowing for trades throughout to be mainly in the gentle to moderate range Wed through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1008 mb low pressure near 31N80W extends a cold front south to FL near 28N80W into the eastern Gulf to Cuba near 23N82W. A surface trough is noticeable in the northern Bahamas from 27N79W to 27N77W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noticeable extending from north central Cuba across the north and central Bahamas to 31N between 71W-79W. Plenty of overcast cloud cover extend from 66W-79W. Further east, a stationary front enters the area from 30N32W to 21N57W and a dissipating front continues to 23N74W in the central Bahamas. SCattered moderate convection is seen north of 24N between 34W-39W, and scattered showers elsewhere along the boundary. A 1026 mb high pressure is centered near 32N61W with moderate to fresh winds north of the stationary front near 22N. The low pressure will track eastward from the Georgia coast to near 31N74W on Tue afternoon, near 28N69W on Wed afternoon, and well southeast of Bermuda by Thu afternoon. The low has a cold front that will reach from the low to E Cuba by Tue afternoon, to Hispaniola by Wed afternoon, and to east of the waters by Thu afternoon. SE gales are associated with the low ahead of the front in zones north of the Bahamas today. Additionally, NE gales should occur just east of NE Florida Tue night. Elsewhere fresh NE to E winds are expected across the central waters late Thu through Fri night. $$ Torres