000 AXNT20 KNHC 230605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WINDS... The Atlantic Ocean forecast consists of: a low pressure center and a cold front, approaching from the west. Expect gale-force SE winds, and sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 15 feet, WITHIN 30N79W TO 30N80.5W TO 31N81W TO 31N79W TO 30N79W. The gale-force wind conditions to are forecast to continue for the next 30 hours or so, with the front. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC; and the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC; or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, everything from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W, to 03N25W, 02N43W, to 01N50W near the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong from the ITCZ to 06N between 17W and 46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 05N to 06N between 10W and 12W, and within 30 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 34W and 38W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... The ARKANSAS-LOUISIANA-TEXAS to Mexico upper level trough, from the last 24 hours, now is supporting the current 1009 mb Florida Panhandle low pressure center, and the cold front that stretches from the 1009 mb low center to the Yucatan Peninsula. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds cover the Gulf of Mexico to the east of the line that runs from 21N97W at the coast of Mexico, to 23N90W, to the westernmost part of the Florida Panhandle. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong from the Straits of Florida northward between 75W in the Atlantic Ocean and the cold front that is in the Gulf of Mexico, covering the entire state of Florida. The current 1009 mb low pressure center will move to SE Georgia by Monday morning/tomorrow morning. The current cold front will pass to the E of the Gulf of Mexico by Monday morning/tomorrow morning also. Strong winds will linger in the NE Gulf of Mexico through Monday night/tomorrow night, as a surface trough that is on the W side of the 1009 mb low pressure center lingers in the NE Gulf. A ridge will build into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday. The ridge will promote light to gentle winds in the Gulf of Mexico during this time frame. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows that an inverted trough is in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Broad surface low pressure covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N, between 74W in Colombia and 83W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong, in clusters, from 12N southward from 75W westward. The GFS model for 250 mb/for 500 mb/for 700 mb shows a trough in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The southernmost part of the Gulf of Mexico cold front is in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the area that is to the west of the line from Cuba near 21N78W, to the easternmost parts of coastal Honduras. The current Gulf of Mexico cold front will push SE from the Yucatan Channel into the far NW Caribbean Sea tonight. The front will reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Monday morning/tomorrow morning; from eastern Cuba to SE Nicaragua early on Tuesday; and then stall and weaken from the Windward Passage to Providencia Island through mid-week. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front in the western Caribbean Sea. The cold front and its parent low pressure center will shift into the western Atlantic Ocean, N of the area, displacing the subtropical ridge and allowing moderate trade winds during the second half of this week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N32W to 29N38W. The front becomes stationary from 29N38W, to 24N50W, 23N60W, 23N70W, and to 24N74W near the Bahamas. Comparatively drier air in subsidence covers the Caribbean Sea and parts of the Atlantic Ocean from 10N to 18N between 40W and 73W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong to isolated strong, from the frontal boundary northward. Deepening low pressure, currently just NW of Apalachicola in Florida, will move to the Georgia coast by Monday morning/tomorrow morning. A cold front, with the deepening low pressure center, will move off the east coast of Florida. SE winds will increase to gale-force by late today off NE Florida, in advance of the approaching low pressure center and cold front. The cold front will continue to sweep eastward, reaching from 31N72W to western Cuba by early Tuesday, as the low slowly moves toward 31N76W. It is possible that the low pressure center may bring more gale- force winds to the waters E of Jacksonville on Tuesday evening, before moving E to 29N65W early on Wednesday, with the front extending to the Windward Passage. The wind speeds and the sea heights are forecast to diminish across the region after late Wednesday, as the low and front move more to the east and weaken. $$ MT